Ukraine doesn’t like Trump’s surrender
Ukrainian President Zelensky is understandably an unhappy man. President Trump organized a meeting to discuss Ukraine behind his back. Trump also conceded most of what the Russians were seeking in advance. Besides the continued Russian occupation of 20% of Ukraine, Trump is prepared to meet other Russian demands. They include no NATO membership for Ukraine, no US forces in Ukraine, and sanctions relief for Russia. It is rumored Trump has also agreed to withdrawal of US forces from other Russian neighbors.
Why?
The US interests the Administration has cited are economic and geopolitical. That is bogus. Russia’s economy at this point is smaller than Spain’s. Alienating Europe, a wealthy market of over 500 million people (EU+UK), to curry economic favor with Russia is absurd. Its population is less than 145 million and its GDP smaller than California’s or Texas’. Russia’s giant Eurasian land mass is of little interest to the US. America has greater oil and gas reserves and produces much more of both. We bought the most important part Russian territory in 1867. It is now called Alaska.
Besides, Russia is now firmly aligned, as a vassal state, with China. Putin couldn’t get out of that relationship if he wanted to. But he doesn’t want to.
One reason for Trump’s capitulation was seated at the negotiating table. Dmitry Rybolovlev, one of Putin’s favorite billionaires, bought a house in Palm Beach from Trump in 2008 for $95 million. Trump had paid less than $42 million for it four years earlier. Even in Palm Beach, that’s wild. Dmitry must have had very good reasons making his money disappear. Trump collaborated in the laundering. If this were a mafia movie, you would know what having him sit in the negotiations yesterday means.
US interests
This is not even appeasement. It is capitulation. There is no reason for Ukraine or the US to give in at this point. Russia has been making very slow progress in attacking Ukraine at very high cost. The war has eliminated Russia as a peer military competitor to the US, if it ever was one. That alone is worth the aid we’ve given Kyiv.
Ukraine is also bleeding, but that is Zelensky’s problem, not Trump’s. Zelensky wants a decent negotiated solution, not the capitulation Trump is offering. Yesterday Turkiye President Erdogan backed Ukraine’s “indisputable” sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Fortunately, the Europeans are said to be assembling a 700 billion euro package for Ukraine. That far exceeds all US assistance to Ukraine, which totals $183 billion. It is a good thing for the US. If Trump’s supporters want to claim credit for getting the Europeans to do it, I’ll gladly applaud with one hand. But the Europeans need to move as quickly as possible after the German election this weekend. Derailing a bad settlement is vital.
Perfidy unlimited
Trump has also tried to shake down Ukraine for $500 billion in mineral deposits, or maybe more. Zelensky has made it clear that deal isn’t going anywhere. He is correct to do so. If anyone should pay for the US aid to Ukraine, it is Russia, which invaded. Asking the victim to pay is a new level of perfidy for Trump, though consistent with past behavior.
The United States should be offering the full support that Erdogan is voicing. Instead, a president who is dismantling the US government is doing the same to its alliances and interests abroad. These will be days that live in infamy.
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Part 1: Is this what you voted for?
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, writes:
Dear Fellow Americans,
It is time to wake up from your slumber and face the truth. Our nation is in peril. Trump’s selection of Hegseth as SecDef and Gabbard as DNI, as well as VP Vance’s statements in Munich in support of the Alternative für Deutschland neofacists, reflect a dramatic change of direction. The President is conceding to Putin’s expansionism and betraying basic American principles. The credibility, rules-based order, national sovereignty, and freedom that have brought prosperity for the past 80 years are at risk.
Putin’s savior
Trump has thrown President Putin a lifeline. The Russian economy and military are exhausted. Ukraine would have prevailed, but Trump blinked. He is the 21st century version of Neville Chamberlain, who surrendered the Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland to Hitler.
Likewise, Trump is yielding the national security of Ukraine and its citizens to Russia. Secretary of State Rubio will meet Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Saudi Arabia to negotiate a deal. This will be done without consulting Ukraine or the European Union. It will weaken NATO, which stands on the front line with Russia. That makes the US much more vulnerable.
The broader implications
Trump is signaling both Putin and President Xi. They now understand that they can do as they want, even if it means giving up Europe and Taiwan. Trump is also adding fuel to the fire in the Middle East. His pandering to Prime Minister Netanyahu will fuel Arab hatred of the US and inspire ISIS attacks on the US.
There are ongoing discussions of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. We can expect a catastrophic response. Trump is creating the conditions for igniting WWIII, or complete Western capitulation. We can only pray that a new Churchill or Roosevelt will sound the clarion call to reason and freedom.
Gutting American security and economy
To further undercut US security, Trump has gutted USAID and its soft power diplomacy. He and Musk are purging the FBI, CIA and the national intelligence community, as well as our world class military. He will install compliant loyalists. This is akin to Stalin’s purge of the military in the 1930s, which weakened the Soviet defense against Hitler’s army. Perhaps Trump thinks he can make a deal with Putin as Stalin did with Hitler in the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. That effort to buy peace between the two totalitarian nations led to catastrophe for both.
Not content with undermining our national standing and security, Trump is also undermining the economy. Tariffs, mass deportations, budget cuts, and gutting of the regulatory and oversight bodies will kill the Biden expansion. The Trump-Musk team fired 300 National Nuclear Security Administration employees and had to hire them back. It has fired 350 EPA and 1000 Veteran Affairs staff, as well as threatening to fire 90,000 IRS staff. How will that help to collect the millions of dollars needed to address the national debt?
Farmers will be particularly hard hit with the loss of markets that will never return. Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and some Asian nations will seek other trading partners. The EU, Russia, and China will benefit. US exports of oil, gas, steel, autos, and agricultural products will be replaced by less mercurial sources.
The budget
Will the average citizen be more financially secure with the MAGA Project 2025 budget proposals? It promises 4.5 trillion in tax cuts for the ultra wealthy and austerity for the rest of us. To partly compensate, $2 trillion in budget cuts are anticipated. These include Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Affairs, supplementary nutrition and aid to 40 million low income families.
The result will be more interest to be paid on the national debt, something traditional Republicans decry. Also a weaker dollar, weaker purchasing power, and much higher inflation. Republican President Lincoln warned:
It is the same old serpent that says work and I will eat. You toil and I will enjoy the fruits thereof.
The rule of law
Trump’s vindictive attacks against our system of jurisprudence and rule of law will further undermine US security. He released the convicted January 6 insurrectionists into society. What example does that set for law enforcement?
Are we now ruled by a mafia oligarchy like Russia? Trump has unleashed an unelected and uncleared citizen, Elon Musk, to access private data in the name of efficiency. This is in exchange for his $225 million donation to the Trump campaign and free unlimited X endorsements. The Trump Administration also tried to award Tesla a $400 million contract for its armored Cybertruck. Only publicity undid the deal. The Age of the Robber Baron is back!
Minorities and opposition
Trump’s people attack minorities, immigrants, non binary peoples, females, free choice, and books not sanctioned by them. Anything other than what their orthodoxy declares legitimate is fair game. Anyone different becomes a target for hatred and vitriol. It is the same scenario that Hitler used against communists, socialists, Jews and non whites. Divide and Rule! Us Against Them! The Soviets, Khmer Rouge and ethnonationalists in Yugoslavia all used these tactics. I personally witnessed it in Cambodia and Yugoslavia.
Hungarian PM Orban, Turkish PM Erdogan, Slovak PM Fico, the German AfD party, and Putin are all in with Trump! They suppress the media and fee speech. They call any opposition the “enemy of the people.” The White House even denied access to the Associated Press because it refused to rename the Gulf of Mexico.
Education and religion
Trump is trying to re-educate and dumb down the public by abolishing the Education Department. His followers are instituting their own curriculum, banning books, and endorsing the Bible in public schools. This violates the First Amendment provision of separation of church and state. The new Secretary of Health and Human Services, RFK Jr., symbolizes the current anti-science trend.
Are these people Christians as exemplified in the New Testament? Where is their compassion, love of fellow man or even sense of humor?
Questions we need to answer
What can explain Trump/MAGA actions that weaken the US and our allies? Why are they empowering Russia, China and other authoritarians? Have we become so ill educated that we elect inept clowns to entertain us? Where are the competent leaders to set the example of pride, dignity, courage, real strength, and placing country before self?
A small time bully and wanna be mafioso who bends to Al Capone-Putin is leading us to destruction. Are we Rome under Caligula or Nero, awaiting the fall of the Empire? What dirt does Putin have on Trump? Or is he and his ilk fascist at heart? Do they support the German AfD, Orban, and Putin to bring on chaos from which they will profit?
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Europe needs to unify and toughen up, fast
Yes, the US is trying to exclude Europe from an issue of vital European interest. No, it is not the first time.
Why Washington excludes Europe
My personal familiarity with this apparently undiplomatic behavior dates from the Dayton agreements that end the Bosnian war. The Europeans were present, but excluded from the key decisions. Holbooke was convinced that they would only complicate things and slow the negotiations. So he ordered Bob Gallucci to get them involved in an endless discussion of the international police force. Should it have executive authority, as the Americans wanted, or not, as the European insisted?
The tactic worked. Only the Germans, who worked bilaterally with the Americans without EU cover, had any impact at Dayton. Holbrooke encouraged Bonn, to prevent a united European consensus against him. The other Europeans had no significant role. The British and French complained bitterly without effect. But they and the rest of the EU were left holding the bag–they paid for much of the reconstruction.
Something similar had happened a few years earlier in the reunification of Germany. The Americans agreed to a 2+4 (two Germanies plus the four occupying powers) format for the diplomacy. But Washington then prevented most important issues from getting on the 2+4 agenda. The format was a fig leaf for US and (West) German decisions.
I’m sure there are many other examples.
The Ukraine negotiations
The Americans are trying the same trick now in the Ukraine negotiations. They intend to work directly with the Russians, excluding not only the UK and EU but also Ukraine. Washington wants to avoid the complications and delays dealing with them would cause. It again intends to leave the Europeans holding the bag. They will be expected not only to pay for the reconstruction but also to field peacekeepers.
The Americans have already made one big mistake. They have telegraphed what they are up to. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s scolded the Europeans at NATO. President Trump’s undertook his talk with Russian President Putin without consultation with allies. The Russian and American Foreign Ministers are meeting this week in Riyadh. Vice President Vance’s offensive talk at the Munich Security Conference told the Europeans all they needed to know.
The US is moving to conclude the Ukraine war on Moscow’s terms. That means surrendering Ukrainian territory for peace. The Americans want, as they have for several presidencies, to pivot away from the defense of Europe. They are also playing to their domestic audience, some of which is Russophilic and anti-European.
What the Europeans need to do now
Amply alerted, the Europeans are reacting quicker than usual. Key states are meeting in Paris today to plan what to do. Here is what I would suggest:
- They agree to monitor a peace settlement only if it in principle preserves Ukraine’s pre-2014 sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- They supply Ukraine with all the weapons and intelligence it needs to win, substituting for any shortfalls from the US.
- Europeans should examine any agreement reached without their presence on its merits, but with prejudice.
- They deploy trainers and technicians to Ukraine to help with both military and civilian tasks.
The Americans won’t like this. They may even try something like what Holbrooke did: convince a big country like Germany or Poland to cooperate bilaterally. That would block a European consensus. But so long as Europe continues to insist on point 1 above, they won’t be stuck with a bad deal.
Trump is different
The difference between Holbrooke’s exclusion of the Europeans and Trump’s is significant. President Clinton, Holbrooke’s boss, backed the NATO alliance and was sympathetic to the EU, which then included the UK. After Dayton, there was no need for a continuing rift between Europe and the US. The agreements reached accorded with European preferences. The rift ended quickly and Europe carried a big burden post-war.
The same won’t happen with Trump. He is unsympathetic to alliances in general, NATO in particular, and the EU most of all. The Americans are pushing for an agreement that will encourage future Russian aggression. If Europe is going to punch at least its weight in future trans-Atlantic issues, it needs to unify and toughen up, fast.
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The America Trump wants is not democratic
NPR broadcast a piece this morning on the dismantling of US democratization efforts abroad.
The Trumpkins/Muskites are cutting the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI). NPR doesn’t say, but I assume the International Republican Institute (IRI) is also bleeding out. It gets much of its funding through NED, as does NDI. State Department and USAID funding for democratization is also frozen.
Trump is an authoritarian
This is not surprising. Trump has made it clear he thinks he is above the law:
Vice President Vance in Munich this week lectured the Europeans for their alleged intolerance of authoritarian politics. He also preferred meeting with the head of the neo-Nazi Alternative für Deutschland(AfD) rather than Germany’s chancellor.
They are not hiding their own identity or their preferences.
It is not just a preference
At home, Trump is doing authoritarian as well as talking it. The Trump-backed Musk cuts are hitting institutions and programs Congress has authorized and to which it has appropriated funds. The President has a sworn obligation to execute those instructions. The House impeached Trump in 2019 for failing to do so with Ukraine assistance. But that can’t happen again so long as Republicans have the majority. Trump is unleashed.
Some Federal courts have begun to order unfreezing of funds and halts or reversal of firings. Trump is not complying. He is defying and pushing back to force escalation of the cases to the Supreme Court. There he hopes the 6-3 majority he created will back his moves. Even if he loses there, the delay will have destroyed most of what Trump and Musk wanted destroyed.
What’s next?
I expect Trump to go after the courts. He will order up impeachments in Congress of a few Federal judges. If he picks weak and vulnerable ones, they will resign to protect themselves. This will precipitate many more resignations, giving him the possibility of filling them with his own, young, yes-people.
I suppose at some point there will be massive demonstrations around the country to object to the authoritarian drift. Trump will order violent police action in response. That’s what he wanted to do in his first term. This time around, he won’t hesitate.
He also won’t hesitate to cut taxes for the rich, as he did in his first term. Some of those big cuts expire at the end of 2025. The Republicans in Congress are lining up to do the deed. They’ll give the working class voters who backed Trump a pittance.
The economy is headed into stagflation. Inflation is already up a tad. The new tariffs and shortage of labor due to deportations will contribute more pressure on prices. Meanwhile the government firings and the added costs of the tariffs to consumers will slow the economy. The stock market, which has experienced a glorious 16 years of rise, will implode. That’s not really a prediction, as I haven’t attached a date to it. But I find it hard to believe we’ll get through the next four years without a bust.
Stopping the craziness
I see little immediate prospect for stopping this craziness. A few Republican defections in the House and Senate would help. But Trump’s threat to primary defectors has worked so far. The only real dissenters among Republicans have been people who aren’t running again.
The first big opportunity will be the November 2026 Congressional elections. All of the House and one third of the Senate will then be up for grabs. But only a handful of seats will be competitive. Winning enough of those to gain a majority in one of the Houses will be existential for the Democrats. And for democracy in America and the world.
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The cabinet of horrors is getting confirmed
After an initial rejection of Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, President Trump is getting all of his nominees confirmed. Arguably several are as bad as Gaetz on the issues. But none of the others quite tops his paying for sex and doing drugs. They can nevertheless do a great deal of harm in office, so let’s review the bidding:
Attorney General Pam Bondi
Trump’s second choice intends to use the Justice Department’s tools against Trump opponents and in favor of his supporters. There is no pretense of independence in Bondi’s Justice Department. She has dropped criminal charges against New York City Mayor Adams because he supports Trump on immigration. She is suing New York State Governor Hochul and other officials because they don’t. The Justice Department is firing lawyers who participated in the prosecution of January 6 rioters.
We can expect this pattern to continue. A few more years of this and there won’t be independent-minded lawyers at Justice. They will all have caved to MAGAism. That is unprecedented. It also violates the principle of equal justice for all. What else would be expected from a President who has spent a career stiffing courts and evading accountability?
Health and Human Services Secretary Kennedy
An anti-vax zealot despite his denials, Kennedy will do his best to block vaccines and other public health measures. He will do nothing to protect the Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health from Trumpkin purges. While both institutions no doubt need reform, the meat ax approach of Elon Musk is already doing them irreparable damage. Kennedy won’t lift a finger to prevent drastic funding cuts.
The real meat and potatoes of HHS is in Medicare and Medicaid. The Republicans intend to gut Medicaid, which provides health care to the poor. They’ll be more careful with Medicare, which provides hospital and doctors to older Americans. But there are a thousand ways they can cut benefits and increase costs. Kennedy will do it.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard
Even Republicans know she is a peril to national security. But except for Senator McConnell they did not have the gumption to vote no. Her flaking for Russian President Putin and Syrian President Assad has been blatant. She couldn’t get any security clearance were she to apply for a mid-level job in the intelligence community. She’ll leak like a sieve, in all the wrong directions.
FBI Director Kash Patel
Not yet confirmed, but the worst of the lot. He has sworn to pursue revenge against Trump’s political enemies and to purge the FBI. He is also a liar, a perjuror, and an enthusiast for the January 6 rioters. Not to mention his anti-Semitic podcaster pal and performing propaganda services for the Russians and consulting for the Chinese.
The rest
I won’t even bother with Pete Hegseth. He has already sold out the Ukrainians and put the US in Russian President Putin’s pocket. No other Defense Secretary in my lifetime would not have resigned rather than follow Trump’s instruction to do that.
Sad to say, Marco Rubio, who knows better, is going along with dismantling USAID. He is also flogging Trump’s nonsense about Panama, Greenland, and Gaza.
Linda McMahon, Trump’s nominee to be the last Education Secretary, is telling Congress closing the Department will require Congressional approval. She’ll forget all about that once confirmed and go along with Elon Musk’s firing of 90% of the staff.
This really is a cabinet of horrors. The most unqualified people serving the least serious president in the history of the Union. Almost all now approved in the Senate of the United States with almost 100% Republican support. And almost 100% Democratic opposition.
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Trump reinvents the Foreign Service wheel
In an executive order issued yesterday, President Trump said the State Department has to implement the President’s foreign policy. Employees who don’t can be fired, he said. Secretary of State Rubio is tasked with reforming the Department to make sure the President’s will is done.
I have no objection to this in principle. It simply reiterates what I have long understood the role of the State Department to be. The problem isn’t with the objectives. It’s with Trump’s mistaken assumptions.
The reality
The assumption is that Foreign Service officers mostly dislike Trump and won’t implement his policies. The dislike for his policies is real. It will be hard to find a Foreign Service officer who wants the US to take over and own Gaza. Few would support tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Canada as the 51st state is not something American diplomats will want to negotiate. Ditto taking over the Panama Canal or Greenland.
Nevertheless, the mandate and tradition of the Service is clear: professional diplomats do what the President wants them to do. They will sometimes express their dissent, either informally or through a formal Dissent Channel message to the Secretary. But having stated their views, they do what they are told. Or resign. Or seek transfer to another job where the conflict does not arise.
I have been in situations where my personal and professional views differed from what I was supposed to do. I and others did not agree with Dick Holbrooke’s plan to end the Bosnian war. We objected to dividing the country into two ethnically defined entities. We spoke up in internal meetings and even appealed against the end-of-war ceasefire to the top of the State Department.
Overruled, I then did my best to contribute at Dayton to the outcome the President wanted. A German colleague and I negotiated the first agreement reached there. I also spent six months working hard in Bosnia to implement the divided solution I had opposed. And I spent another year supervising State Department intelligence analysts who identified threats to that outcome.
The consequences
The executive order reiterating in stentorian terms what is already understood will frighten some Foreign Service officers. They will be reluctant to speak up in dissent. Some will ask for transfers or resign. Others will have good job offers and take them. The President intends to intimidate. He will succeed.
Whether this is a problem depends on degree. The attempted firing of virtually all USAID officers is going to sharply reduce American capacity to provide foreign assistance. Trump apparently intends that. It will also reduce the capacity of those remaining to prevent waste, fraud, and mismanagement. That is a serious mistake.
But the longer term problem is recruitment. The Foreign Service needs experienced people with deep knowledge of other countries, their languages, their interests, and their cultures. Future classes of incoming diplomats will be sympathetic to the President’s America First agenda. They will fill the roles others have vacated. That is only natural. But that is not a way to get the experienced professionals diplomacy needs.
Yes, State needs cutting
I am not a die hard defender of the Foreign Service, the State Department, or USAID. I was Deputy Chief of Mission at US Embassy Rome in the early 1990s. After dissenting, I implemented budget-induced cuts of 10% of our Italian and American staff. It was painful to the people involved (and to me), but it did not seriously impair the Embassy.
I now believe the cut should have been much larger, starting with the excessive non-State Department staff. The US mission in Italy had 36 different agencies of the US government represented. That is typical of over-size US embassies. Unfortunately, the Trump Administration is calling for cuts in “national” (i.e. non-US) staff. That is the wrong end of the stick. The Americans are much more expensive. The national staff can be cut more readily once the American staff they support is reduced.
Yes, State needs cutting. But you have to start in the right place. Reinventing the wheel won’t get it done.
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