Even with a ceasefire, the war will continue
Peace talks between Ukraine and Russia failed again today. The Russians agreed to exchange dead bodies but nothing more. They want full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four provinces Moscow has annexed before agreeing to a ceasefire.
Why go on?
These peace talks are going nowhere. Why continue? Their purpose is to convince President Trump and the Congress that President Putin is the main obstacle to a ceasefire. President Zelensky wants the monkey off his own back. He wants President Trump to weigh in against Putin.
Trump isn’t yielding. While feigning exasperation with Putin, he does nothing serious to punish Putin’s intransigence. He has so far refused to tighten sanctions, impose tariffs, or increase weapons supplies to Ukraine. Much of the Congress is ready to do all those things. But few Republicans will buck Trump if it comes to a vote.
What about the Europeans?
The Europeans have mouthed more willingness. But so far their actions have not lived up to the promise. As Emma Ashford notes, the focus on their willingness to contribute troops to ceasefire monitoring is top priority. They should use frozen Russian funds and ramp up military production in both Europe and in Ukraine . They should also do much more to tighten sanctions by preventing transshipment of their products from third countries to Russia.
There really is no need for European peacekeepers in Ukraine if a serious ceasefire comes into force. Moscow and Kyiv can jointly monitor a ceasefire, provided there is political will. A European force amounting to no more than 20,000 on a more than 1200-mile confrontation line is a token. And that doesn’t include the 674-mile border with Belarus. In 2022, the Russians launched the attack on Kyiv from there.
The main issue in Ukraine is ensuring that Kyiv has the resources it needs to stop the slow Russian advance. That should include long-range fire capabilities to disrupt the Russian rear. The Ukrainians are demonstrating that they have the intelligence to do that well, even with their own drones. More long-range artillery and missiles would help.
It would also be nice if the Ukrainians could break through Russian lines. They did that in 2022 near Kherson and Kharkiv. In 2024 they did it again in Russia’s Kursk province. I find it hard to believe the Russian lines will hold if there is a major breakthrough.
When will it end?
President Putin remains committed to his war aims in Ukraine. These include not only the entire territory of the four provinces Moscow has already annexed, in addition to Crimea. Moscow also aims to control Kyiv’s choice of allies. There is no way Ukraine can accept such an outcome. Nor would Europe want it to.
During my visit to Kyiv last month, I found unanimity among the Ukrainians I talked with on few issues. But one of them was whether the war would end soon. Even if a ceasefire happens, they expect Putin to continue to seek control over all of Ukraine. He knows he can’t do that by political means, as he is trying to do in Georgia. If he were to disappear, the Ukrainians expect a non-democratic regime in Moscow to continue the effort. The war will continue.
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Calms before the Balkan storms
In both Bosnia and Serbia, storms are brewing at the presidential level. The outcomes are uncertain. But neither Serbian President Vucic nor Republika Srpska (RS) President Dodik can be sure of holding on to their rickety presidencies.
Bosnia and Herzegovina
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the issue is a judicial one. A Sarajevo court has convicted the President of the Serb-controlled 49% of the country of defying orders of the international community High Representative. He is responsible for implementation of the Dayton accords that ended the Bosnia war in 1995. Dodik’s lawyers are appealing, but a decision is expected by the end of summer. He has three options, assuming failure of the appeal:
- Stay in the country and defy the court.
- Leave the country for haven in Dodik-friendly Serbia, Hungary, or Russia.
- Surrender to the authorities.
If he stays, the Sarajevo authorities will eventually attempt an arrest, with consequent physical risks to Dodik and others. If he leaves, his brand of ethnic nationalist defiance will fall into discredit, at least for a while. The main opposition in RS is not defending him. If Dodik surrenders to the authorities, he will become a martyr to his cause. His jail time is only a year, but he would be barred from public office for six years.
I’d bet on his leaving. Dodik is no hero or martyr. Serbia won’t want him, as that would further complicate its relations with the US and the EU. Hungary might take him, as it did a former North Macedonian Prime Minister. But I imagine him most appropriately joining Syrian President Assad in some presumed Moscow suburb. Dodik is not a killer like Assad, but he is an autocrat and merits an autocrat’s fate.
Serbia
In Belgrade, the issue is a political one, albeit rooted in the failure of the state’s prosecutors to do their jobs properly. Massive demonstrations protesting against an increasingly autocratic President Vucic. The demonstrators hold him responsible not just for an incident that killed 16 people, but also for a corrupt system of governance that ignores the rule of law. For full documentation, see this report of an ad hoc, nongovernmental group.
The demonstrations have weakened Vucic, but there is no alternative in sight. He has held on for months, sacrificing a prime minister but still keeping his own position. In power as Deputy Prime Minister, Prime Minister, and President since 2012, Vucic has survived several previous rounds of popular protest, relying in part on Russian help against “color revolution.” He sacrifices a minister or two and eventually calls early elections, which he uses patronage and ballot stuffing to win.
This time could be different. The EU and US appear less inclined now than previously to regard Vucic as better than any conceivable alternative. The Trump Administration, which I had assumed would support him if only to protect the Trump family building plans in Belgrade, has said little. The EU is also reluctant to back him. Vucic’s support for Dodik in Bosnia may be one reason, and his solicitude towards Russia another. In both Brussels and Washington, officials seem to have awakened to what Balkan experts have been saying for some time: Vucic is irremediable.
What’s next?
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the judicial decision on Dodik’s appeal will be the next predictable action-forcing event. In Serbia, the students have started to call for early elections, which otherwise wouldn’t be due until 2027. The key questions there will be whether the political opposition can united against Vucic and mobilize even broader support than the protests. And whether the election will be truly free and fair.
Democracy and rule of law in both Bosnia and Serbia are in the balance. The US and EU should be preparing to do their utmost to ensure they gain.
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Israel in Gaza: illegal, immoral, unwise
So many have written so much about Gaza that I’ve hesitated. What is there to say that adds value or insight? But the situation requires at least a brief remark.
Illegal
Israel is withholding humanitarian aid, attacking civilians, and rendering the entire Strip uninhabitable. These are war crimes. It is arguable that they amount to genocide, but that is a legal question. I’ll wait for the International Criminal Court to decide. Others have argued the case better than I can. In the meanwhile, it is clear Israel is violating well-established laws of war.
But, some will object, what about October 7? What about Hamas? The laws of war do not allow reciprocity for illegal acts. Hamas conducted its horrific attack in ways that unquestionably violated the respect due to civilians in wartime. The taking of hostages is also illegal. But none of that can justify wanton destruction and targeted killing of civilians.
Immoral
Treating strangers properly–welcoming them, providing for them, helping them–is a fundamental doctrine in Jewish, Christian, and Muslim morality. It doesn’t preclude defending yourself if attacked, but it does limit that defense to what is necessary. Israel has gone far beyond that limit. It is displacing the Gaza population, starving its children, and destroying any possibility of return to its homes.
Israel is doing everything possible not just to prevent a resurgence of Hamas but to make Gaza uninhabitable. Its current government wants the Palestinians to leave. Prime Minister Netanyahu even says this is to pursue President Trump’s vision of rebuilding it as a resort. Another Israeli minister says he wants another Nakba. That means repetition of the expulsion of Arabs during Isreal’s war for independence.
The Prime Minister’s motives in continuing the war on Gaza are particularly heinous. He is using wartime to avoid a political reckoning. He hopes battlefield success will erase his own responsibility for Israel’s failures to anticipate and defend against the Hamas attack.
Unwise
How will any of these excesses benefit Israel or Jews in general? If Palestinians leave Gaza, some will settle in Sinai, which already harbors Muslim extremists. Is the border of Israel with Sinai any better protected than the border of Gaza with Israel before October 7? Will increasing the Palestinian population in Egypt really help Israel? The Palestinians who left during the Nakba are still a problem for Israel, more than 75 years later. If there are Hamasees left in Gaza, will spreading them around the world reduce the threat to Israelis and Jews?
Trump’s Gaza-a-Lago proposition is particularly unwise. Let’s suppose it happens. Trump resorts are built up and down the Gaza coast, which is really beautiful. Yes, I’ve been there and seen it. How safe would the resort be from the Hamasees who have been spread around the world? For that matter, how safe would any Trump resort be?
What’s the alternative?
Jews and Palestinians have no alternative to sharing the Holy Land. Israelis have demonstrated that is possible within their internationally recognized borders. Palestinians there do not have the equal rights and privileges they are entitled to. But most days they share a society with the more privileged Jews and strive for equal treatment and conditions nonviolently. I am a Jew who supports that effort. I am not alone. My religion tells me that is what I should be doing. As does my understanding of what it means to be an American.
That is what is needed in Gaza and the West Bank. The Israeli effort to remove the Palestinians is delusional. They need equal rights, which in Gaza and the West Bank means a Palestinian state. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas says he wants one without a military. That state need not be anti-Israeli. But what Israel has done in Gaza is making two states living securely side-by-side much more difficult. Law, morality, and wisdom suggest that is a big mistake.
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Nuclear Iran – facts, goals and opportunity
Former IAEA Safeguards Inspector Dr. Pantelis Ikonomou writes:
In May 2018, then President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Today, Iran is much closer to possible acquisition of nuclear weapons than at that time.
Facts
The fourth round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran was recently completed.
Their continuation will convene soon. That is a promising development. The nuclear issue has fueled Middle East confrontations since May 2018.
Goals
Reportedly, Tehran would accept an agreement limiting its uranium enrichment and relevant material inventories. That would be in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. President Trump has also said he is ready for an agreement that would limit Tehran’s enrichment. In addition, he has threatened Iran with massive bombing if Iran does not accept his proposals.
Limiting enrichment could guarantee Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Trump did not, however, clarify whether he also aims at other goals. In the past, the US has sought to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability, ballistic missile program, and strategic influence in the region.
Israel is the third protagonist in Middle East geopolitical theater. It remains irrevocably opposed to any agreement that does not irreversibly destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. The powerful Israel lobby in the US often asserts decisive influence on Washington. It advocates a maximalist policy of unlimited pressure against Tehran.
The opportunity
There are reliable reports of Tehran making a remarkable proposal. Namely, the setting up of a regional nuclear enrichment consortium with Saudi Arabia and UAE, including US investment. This would be an alternative to shutting down its uranium enrichment.
Such multinational cooperation could be realized within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It would be the equivalent of the URENCO (Uranium Enrichment Company) plant, which the IAEA monitors. URENCO is a British-German-Dutch uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel consortium that operates facilities in Germany and Netherlands. URENCO uses centrifuge technology, as do the enrichment facilities in Iran.
Such a project would provide the participating States – Saudi Arabia, UAE, and eventually others in the region – with additional confidence in their ability to obtain nuclear fuel for peaceful nuclear programs. At the same time, the scheme would assure the international community that the countries involved are using the sensitive nuclear material exclusively for peaceful purposes. The stringent monitoring and verification regime of the IAEA nuclear Safeguards inspectors would provide that assurance.
History remains a wise teacher
President Trump’s decision to kill in 2018 the 2015 Iran deal was an obvious failure.
Lack of knowledge and planning characterized Trump’s previous negotiations in the similar case of North Korea. He made a series of controversial statements, exchanged letters of admiration with President Kim, and threatened “fire and fury.” After three in-person meetings, Trump left their Hanoi Summit in 2019 unexpectedly without any statement. Since then, North Korea has continued developing its nuclear arsenal completely uncontrolled.
We should by now have learned the lessons.
International anxiety is justified. Will diplomacy or war result?
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Winning the war with equanimity
As I prepare to leave Kyiv Wednesday, here are notes on issues not covered in my earlier posts. Or where I would like to amend previous statements. The posts in question are First Impressions, Culture, Religion and Education, Ukraine’s Strengths and Weaknesses, and Ukraine’s Opportunities and Threats.
Culinary delights
Kyiv’s restaurants are really good and cheap for those who live on dollars or euros. I’ve enjoyed not only traditional and modernized Ukrainian but also Georgian, Crimean, Turkish, and Korean cuisine. I’ve even had a good American breakfast. French and Belgian are available, but neither really entices me these days. Italian we reserve for home and Italy. I haven’t tried the Mexican, but it’s here.
Street food is good too. Sandwiches are of all sorts, often on decent croissants or other good bread. Abundant cakes, strudels, and sweets are available everywhere. Coffee and tea are omnipresent, not only in restaurants and coffee bars but also at street kiosks. The ice cream is no great shakes, but McDonalds suffices in a pinch.
Street people, store fronts, and the economy
I am told beggars and homeless people are more common away from the Kyiv city center, where I am lodged. But my range is pretty wide–three miles in any direction is more or less my limit. I’ve done that in virtually all directions and found little obvious destitution. I won’t say it isn’t there. Just that it isn’t as evident as in DC.
Empty storefronts are also not as common as in DC, which has not recovered fully from the epidemic closures. While everyone here is hoping for an improved economy once the war ends, it doesn’t seem in terrible shape. GDP contracted slightly in the fourth quarter of 2024 but projections until 2028 are for 5% growth. The main problem is lack of major investment, which is understandable in wartime. Ukraine will need to do a lot to attract foreign direct investment once the war ends.
Fashion
Most Ukrainians dress for comfort, not success, as do most Americans. If anything, street clothes in Kyiv are even more informal than in DC: sneakers, jeans, sweatpants prevail. Definitely not smart casual. Professors are mostly in that category as well. But in the evenings women sometimes appear in outfits that remind me of the strange fashions of Communist Eastern Europe. At the conference I attended, most of the men were accoutered in ties and suits and women in the equivalents. I was the odd one out there.
Equanimity
I continue to be impressed with Ukrainian equanimity. I still haven’t seen two Ukrainians arguing, but a few speeding motorcycles and non-muffled cars suggest youthful frustrations. Many restaurants allow you to pay your bill online without interacting with a waiter. That suggests a great deal of mutual confidence. Everyplace takes contactless credit cards, even for very small charges. No one gets annoyed with an American who can’t speak Ukrainian or Russian. We manage to communicate without too much fuss. Cell phones help.
Synagogue
Though not very devout, I went to Shabbat services at the only Reform synagogue Friday night. It was a modest affair with perhaps 20 participants, half a dozen of them on Zoom. The main rabbi was in Israel. The substitute rabbi spoke in Russian from Germany. One of the younger participants was assigned to try to help me, but her English was limited. So I joined the Hebrew when I knew the tunes, suffered rudimentary post-service conversations, and left without feeling much renewed. But at least I can testify that Reform has its place and adherents in Kyiv.
The trip home
I’ll be 12 hours on a jiggly train to Poland Wednesday. Then a 1.5 hour wait and another 2.5 hours on a smoother train to get to Warsaw late in the evening. Only to get up again well before dawn to fly to Munich and DC. So more or less 48 hours of travel.
I can’t say I am looking forward to the trip. But the experience here has been super. Seeing people face war and destruction with determination and commitment is inspiring. And I’m pleased to see how they go about their business with equanimity. I’ve heard some angry denunciations of Russian behavior, especially in stealing children from occupied areas of Ukraine. But nothing that went much beyond what the facts would support. Kyivans seem more concerned to maintain their own composure than to tangle rhetorically with Moscow. They want to win the war, not destroy Russia. The inverse cannot be said in Moscow.
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Ukraine’s opportunities and threats
Based on proceedings at the Kyiv Security Forum, I’ve already tried to summarize Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are some opportunities and threats.
Opportunities still abound
The West still has opportunities to improve Ukraine’s position vis-a-vis Russia, which responds only to actions (not just words):
- Strengthen sanctions, including secondary sanctions against firms doing business with Russia.
- Use Russian assets frozen in Europe and the US to fund Ukrainian defense.
- End European dependence on Russian natural gas, as pledged, by 2027.
- Integrate Ukrainian and European industry to produce more of what Ukraine needs.
- Raise defense spending sharply.
- Exploit any ceasefire to help Ukraine gain against Russia.
- Provide military assets to Ukraine on lend/lease terms.
- Improve Alliance interoperability.
- Deepen relations with Ukraine through the NATO/Ukraine Council.
- Encourage Russian brain drain to the West.
Carpe diem
Europeans, participants in the Forum thought, need to seize the day. Their political will has to match Ukrainian courage. Saturday’s visit of Polish Prime Minister Tusk, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Merz started that process. The Europeans joined with Ukrainian President Zelensky in issuing an ultimatum for a 30-day ceasefire to begin Monday. So far, Russia has not accepted the proposition.
Having reappropriated the language of peace, the Europeans need now to reach out to the rest of the world. They also need to convince their own right-wing nationalists that Kyiv, not Moscow, merits support. Europe’s position should stay values-based but firm.
The Europeans also need to bring President Trump on board. The Congress is already restraining his worst pro-Putin impulses. The Euros should offer to acquire unique US capabilities and even to pay for deployment of US troops. They should also underline to Trump that peace through strength requires the US to do more for Ukraine. MAGA cannot make America great if it abandons Kyiv.
Russia’s future
The war with Ukraine has degraded the Russian military, compromised its intelligence, and devastated its economy and society. Even while advancing slowly on the ground, Moscow is losing the war. It has achieved none of its objectives. The West has not recognized its annexations or ruled out NATO membership and security guarantees for Ukraine.
While by no means guaranteed, defeat will open the possibility of a democratic transition in Russia. Putin will in any case eventually be gone. Moscow will then have to reconsider its relations with the West. We can hope the Russians will opt for improvement.
The threats are still real
Putin has gone too far to compromise now. His overall objectives have not changed. He wants to eliminate an independent Ukraine. A successful democracy on Russia’s borders is a threat to his regime. If Ukraine loses, Moldova and Lithuania will be next. Appeasement will encourage further aggression. Putin isn’t an idiot or crazy but rather a determined bully. He wants to impose his own rules to make the world safe for kleptocratic autocracy. The closing of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe are precisely what he wants.
NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee is the only thing that will stop him. But President Trump’s attitude toward NATO, including threats against Greenland, make Europeans doubt that he will do what it requires.
Even if the war ends, the fighting will go on through hybrid warfare. Russia and China will remain allied. Trump’s efforts to separate them will fail. The US should not promote a division of labor that assigns Europe to the Europeans and Asia to the Americans. That would divide the Alliance and limit Europe’s support in Asia.
Putin has effectively used nuclear blackmail to limit US aid to Ukraine. He has also promoted grievances in the West that threaten democratic governance and aim to make autocracy look more attractive. He will continue these successful efforts.
On balance
While the mists of war are still hiding the outcome, Ukraine is far from defeat. Even if Russia could occupy the whole country, which it can’t, many Ukrainians would resist. Putin’s best bet now is a Georgia-style political takeover of Ukraine by forces friendly to Moscow. But that gets less possible with every day of continued conflict. Killing people because of their identity strengthens that identity. Ukrainians are feeling more Ukrainian, not less, due to the war.
Russia is at the point of diminishing returns. Western appeasement would be a serious mistake. Ending Putin’s threat to Ukraine will prevent war elsewhere. That is a worthy cause.
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