Even pharaoh knew when to let people go

While the U.S. may be trying to engineer a smooth transition, my guess is that Mubarak has something else in mind.  His devotion to order was apparent in last night’s speech. He regards himself as essential to order.  The appointment of intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as vice president seems far off the mark if the objective is reform. It is more likely a precursor of crackdown, at which he is experienced and successful, than a smooth transition. Ditto with the appointment of the Aviation Minister, Ahmed Shafiq, as prime minister. Unless there is a negotiated solution, the regime will be tempted to try, likely tonight and if not tomorrow, the kind of brutal dispersal of demonstrators that has worked in the past.

Will it work this time?  I doubt it.  Crowds in Cairo today stayed on good terms with at least some of the soldiers, many of whom are presumably conscripts and therefore less subject to command and control than the professionals, while the Interior Ministry seems to be a focal point of police violence and the main TV station is heavily guarded.  The objective of the demonstrators has become increasingly into focus:  they want Mubarak out.  If the mid-ranking army officers are smart–and there is every reason to believe they are–they will be wondering whether they really want to crack skulls to save Mubarak, who in any event is starting to look like someone packing his bags. BBC is reporting that his two sons are already in London.

It is of course possible that Egypt will suffer a period of disorder, with or without Mubarak in place, providing opportunities for extremists to push the country in directions inimical to U.S., and most Egyptians’, interests. This would not be pretty and could veer in very dangerous directions.

But it is also possible that the constitution, which calls for new elections within 60 days of the president stepping down, will be respected (Article 84):

In case of the vacancy of the Presidential Office or the permanent disability of the President of the Republic, the President of the People’s Assembly shall temporarily assume the Presidency; and, if at that time, the People’s Assembly is dissolved, the President of the Supreme Constitutional Court shall take over the Presidency, however, on condition that neither one shall nominate himself for the Presidency. The People’s Assembly shall then proclaim the vacancy of the office of President. The President of the Republic shall be chosen within a maximum period of sixty days from the day of the vacancy of the Presidential Office.

This choice of the president is presumably done within the People’s Assembly, as provided for in Article 76.

It is hard to picture the demonstrators tolerating the choice of a new president by a parliament elected last fall in blatantly unfree and unfair elections, though I suppose they might accept if it is clear that the choice will be a transitional one, i.e. not Omar Suleiman or some other Mubarak appointee (former IAEA chief Mohamed El Baradei for example).  But it is going to be hard to satisfy anyone seriously interested in democracy in Egypt within the current constitutional framework, which is tailored to suit the likes of Hosni Mubarak.  Writing a new constitution will not be an easy, or quick, process.

In the meanwhile, lifting of the emergency law and formation of a government free of Mubarak’s military buddies would be the clearest signals that whoever is in charge is serious about moving ahead with democratic reform.  We are not there yet, and we may never get there–if the crackdown is successful, something like the previous system might be restored, with or without Mubarak as president.

An NPR correspondent told what I would regard as a good Egyptian joke this morning.  Informed by a speechwriter that his farewell address to the people was ready, Mubarak asks “why? are they going someplace?”  Even pharaoh knew when to let the people go.  In the modern version, the pharaoh leaves.