Day: January 31, 2011
Made in Egypt is best
This is about as good as it gets in the “statements from the army” category:
The presence of the army in the streets is for your sake and to ensure your safety and wellbeing. The armed forces will not resort to use of force against our great people. Your armed forces, who are aware of the legitimacy of your demands and are keen to assume their responsibility in protecting the nation and the citizens, affirms that freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody.
But beware those like Les Gelb who see the army as a defense against the Muslim Brotherhood. What about freedom of expression for everybody does Les not believe in? Having been thoroughly discredited by advocating partition of Iraq, is he determined now to embarrass himself by advocating a military takeover in Egypt?
There is of course a lot to worry about when it comes to the transition to democracy in Egypt. It doesn’t stop with the Muslim Brotherhood, which may turn out to be one of the more moderate political forces at work. Every loon West of Islamabad will be heading soon for the pyramids to sell his (yes, most of the loons are male) wares. Egypt needs a carefully guided transition that respects its own traditions (including the prestige and popularity of the army) and undoes the constitutional straitjacket that Mubarak invented for his own purposes.
Who better to do this than the Egyptians themselves? Its Nobel Prize winners and youth are converging in Cairo for the denouement, which could be peaceful if the army is determined to live up to its words.
What is needed now is for someone to read Hosni Mubarak his rights and hustle him onto a plane for Saudi Arabia. That honor may have fallen to former Ambassador Frank Wisner, in Cairo on behalf of the State Department to help chart a way forward. But it would be much better if no American is seen as ending the regime. President Obama has been clear enough about what he wants to see happen. Tomorrow’s demonstration, if peaceful and even half as big as a million, should get the message through to anyone who is listening.
The trouble is President Mubarak is not listening and may try to stick it out with daily meaningless concessions. The great peril, to both Mubarak and Egypt, is that he will hang on too long, increasing the risk of serious violence and decreasing the likelihood of a democratic outcome.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Rope-a-dope it is, for this round
This morning President Mubarak is playing rope-a-dope, letting the protesters tire themselves out while he offers a vice president, reform, political dialogue, a new cabinet, food and other subsidies, promises of jobs and 10% discount coupons. The big crackdown may not come as soon as I had thought–he might wait a few days, making sure the army is in all the right places and hoping the crowds thin as people start to worry more about protecting their property in the absence of the police, who are playing hide and seek (or maybe cops become robbers). He could then use the discovery of weapons (or maybe al Qaeda?) among those who remain as an excuse for reestablishing law and order.
Meanwhile, former IAEA chief Mohamed El Baradei has emerged as the leading figure among the demonstrators. That may be an American illusion caused by his appearance Sunday on Fareed Zakaria’s CNN program calling for Mubarak’s resignation rather than real enthusiasm among the demonstrators, who seem to regard him more as a bridging figure for a transitional arrangement. He, Ayman Nour and other luminaries of the opposition are said to have formed a 10-person (let’s hope there are some women included) “People’s Popular Parliament” (sounds good!) to manage the crisis, including security and negotiations with the army. El Baradei is hardly your usual Jacobin, but he has a lot of experience handling delicate situations, joined the demonstrations (better late than never) and could well help to bring about a relatively nonviolent end to the regime.
Washington hasn’t quite pulled hard on the rug beneath Mubarak’s feet, but talking about transition rather than reform and thinking about blocking aid has its implications.
My twitter feed tells me the million Egyptian march is scheduled for Tuesday, so maybe we’ll all have to hold our breath until then.
RSS - Posts
