The audacity of audacity
It has been a nice day for a walk in Egypt’s streets, where millions today have demonstrated their interest in seeing President Mubarak out of office right away and his successor chosen democratically in free and fair elections.
What is Mubarak’s response? He says he will not run next September for another term. This may well look to Egyptians like the result of American efforts, as the New York Times is reporting that President Obama sent Mubarak a message to this effect through former U.S. Ambassador Frank Wisner.
Mubarak is conceding far less than it may sound to Westerners. The Egyptian constitution (article 76) prescribes the process for choosing the President:
The People’s Assembly shall nominate the President of the Republic. The nomination shall be referred to the people for a plebiscite. The nomination to the post of President of the Republic shall be made in the People’s Assembly upon the proposal of at least one-third of its members. The candidate who wins two-thirds of the votes of the Assembly members shall be referred to the people for a plebiscite.
The People’s Assembly is the lower house of a parliament chosen in unfree and unfair elections last fall, in which Mubarak’s National Democratic Party (NDP) holds 90% of the seats. So Mubarak is asking Egypt to wait seven months for him to pack his bags, then watch his successor be chosen by his own political party in a packed parliament. He mumbled something in his speech today about revision of Article 76, but it seemed to refer to the timing of elections rather than the procedures.
I don’t think you could find 1 in 100 of the people who took a walk in Tahrir Square today to say they like Mubarak’s proposition. But Mubarak is not making all the classic mistakes. The day was peaceful. The security forces were restrained. If there was misbehavior, it was not much televised. Subsidized bread is still being delivered, satisfying the lower classes (where there is more support for the regime) while gasoline is scarce, discomforting the middle classes (where there is less support for the regime). Internet is mostly off (though one tweeter suggested Mubarak would be well advised to turn it on so everyone would go home to watch and answer emails), cell phones are more on (not being able to communicate was really freaking people out).
This is championship rope-a-dope, with a touch of chutzpah, if I can be permitted a culturally incorrect euphemism. The audacity of audacity, with a bit of spite thrown in for good measure. Mubarak may well try to keep this up, wearing down his opponents, thinning their ranks and hoping that they will make the mistake of resorting to violence.
The game is not yet over. The Americans need to make sure they are not perceived as selling out the Egyptian demonstrators, whose chants today have taken on a more nationalist, anti-American and anti-Israeli edge. It will serve the United States no better to be seen as responsible for the failure of the revolution than for its success. Made in Egypt should be stamped on whichever one this incredible week produces.
PS: President Obama got it right: lots of “musts,” but he leaves the “hows” up to the Egyptians:
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