Day: February 4, 2011
Mabruk Egypt!
So far, so good. This has been Egypt’s proud day! Huge crowds, peaceful, clear messages.
Have a look, courtesy of the Russians, who don’t resist the anti-American spin (but of course I agree that this revolution should be made in Egypt):
Now the hard part begins, for both Egyptians and Americans:
- Brian Katulis focuses on U.S. diplomatic strategy to continue to press the case for early and quick transition.
- Rob Satloff outlines what an ideal transition to democracy would look like from the U.S. perspective (http://washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3297)–sorry for that, I can’t make their links work!
- Larry Diamond emphasizes the difficulties of the transition.
- Tarek Masoud proposes ways of getting past those difficulties.
- Marina Ottaway offers two translated statements from Egyptian pro-democracy advocates involved in negotiations with the authorities. This was published in the Egyptian newspaper Ash-Shorouk February 3 and merits quotation in full, with the names of the signatories:
Full text of statement (translated from Arabic by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
The current regime, represented by the president of the republic, has agreed to a limited number of the popular demands that have been clearly expressed. The people who have come out in the millions in Cairo and all Egyptian cities still insist on the following legitimate demands:
- The President must delegate to his Vice President the responsibilities of managing the transitional period that began yesterday and will be completed by the end of the president’s current term.
- The Vice President must agree to the following: dissolve the Shura Council and People’s Assembly and form a legislative committee consisting of constitutional experts and independent judges who will prepare for the necessary constitutional amendments.
- Form a government of experts and independent figures that are accepted by the public to administer executive operations during this transitional period.
- End the rule by Emergency Law and create specific mechanisms to hold accountable those responsible for attacks on the people as well as public and private property and for unprecedented intimidation of the public. Those in the various state institutions who contributed to exposing the nation and the public to the effects of this absence of security must also be held responsible.
- Ensure the safety of the youth that have congregated in Tahrir Square and other streets in Cairo and various Egyptian cities during this transitional period, and protect them from prosecution, persecution and violation of their rights. Their rights, including freedom of expression and peaceful assembly and their legitimate means of expression, must be protected. We note our full solidarity with the youth and call on all signatories of this statement to protect the protesters and their personal safety.
- We assert on record our appreciation and praise of the responsible, patriotic role of the military.
The signatories released a second statement stating:
The group, which addressed its message to the President, his deputy and the military proposed a way out of the grave crisis that has plagued the country and its citizens. The group reiterates its call for the military to ensure the security and safety of the Egyptian youth that is protesting peacefully in Tahrir Square and other streets in Egyptian cities, and to protect them from the risk of prosecution, persecution, and violation of their rights. The violence occurring on Egyptian streets will only contribute to more political tensions and create obstacles to mitigating the current crisis. We are hoping once again that the Egyptian military will help the nation and the people to emerge from this crisis and save the lives of the Egyptian youth.
Signatories:
Ahmed Kamal Aboul Magd
Naguib Sawiris
Nabil al-Arabi
Salama Ahmed Salama
Ibrahim El Moallem
Waheed Abd El-Majeed
Abdel Aziz El-Shafei
Amr Hamzawy
Amr El Shobaki
Gamil Matar
Safwat Thabet
Ambassador Nabil Fahmy
Former Minister Mervat el-Talawi
Ali Mosharrafa
Adel el-Moalem
Yahya al-Jamal
Anis Aclimandos
Amin Mahdy
Ahmed Fouad
Justice Sami Mahmoud Zein el-Din
Amani Al Khayat
Nasser Amin
Fathi al-Shawadfi
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Transition begins today
The night was quieter than most of us expected, and the day so far as well. Massive crowds in Tahrir square, big enough to scare off the thugs, who likely have been reined in a bit. They embarrassed the regime a good deal on Wednesday. The army also did a bit more yesterday to keep pro- and anti-Mubarak demonstrators apart:
Regime focus yesterday was on detaining journalists and human rights activists, in an apparent effort to prevent the word from getting out about what Mubarak was up to. Dumb move that one: it guaranteed a lot of media attention in the U.S.–the press likes nothing better than covering themselves, and the human rights advocates will no doubt want to write about their treatment in custody. Nothing done yesterday seems to have restricted the flow of information, and the regime did nothing as dramatically bad as what it did on Wednesday. Go figure.
Al Jazeera English in particular is doing a great job, focusing mainly on people actually involved in the demonstrations. I turned on CNN for a comparison: they were interviewing luminaries like Rudy Giuliani and Barbara Walters. My how the mighty (CNN as well as Giuliani and Walters, who had nothing to say) have fallen!
President Mubarak is saying he is ready to go but fears chaos if he does. I am starting to believe him, and the New York Times is reporting that negotiations are under way for Vice President Suleiman and the army to take over. No one seems to have convinced Mubarak to sign on yet, but I’m not sure I’ll be surprised if he does. If he wants to die in Egypt, it may be the only way.
Even if he signs today on the dotted line, there is a long way to go yet. The current parliament was elected in fraudulent, unfair and unfree elections in December. The constitution not only gives the president extraordinary powers but also requires that a new one pass muster in parliament.
Someone has to figure out a way to give Egypt a new parliament, one elected freely and fairly (with substantially fewer than the 96% of seats said to be controlled by Mubarak’s party). That new parliament would then fix the constitution and proceed with election of a new president, and maybe of still another parliament.
This is a tall order to get done by September, when presidential elections were scheduled. But there is no limit to what can be done if there is good will. So far, there isn’t. Mubarak and Suleiman are still both blaming foreign agitators for Egypt’s troubles, and abuses by the security forces are still rampant, even if they are not actually beating Egyptians up quite as much as earlier in the week.
Today is supposed to be “departure” day. Whether Mubarak leaves the presidency today or not, February 4 is likely to be seen as marking the departure from an autocratic regime and the beginning of a difficult, and lengthy, transition to democracy.
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Dodik’s next move: squeezing Brcko dry
Matthew Parish, who now practices law in Geneva with Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP, has kindly given me permission to publish this interesting analysis, which has already appeared in the Bosnian newspaper Oslobodjenje. From 2005 to 2007, Matthew lived in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where he worked for the Office of the High Representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina (OHR) as the Chief Legal Adviser to the International Supervisor of Brčko.
While I think Matthew is overly harsh in his description of OHR officials, the careful dissection of what Dodik is up to merits attention, including from the OHR and other concerned internationals. As it is significantly longer than the usual blog posts, I’ve put the piece in the “From the field” section, where Geneva (and Brcko) are located from my DC perspective.
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