The world beyond Egypt
I’ve been so caught up in Egypt for 10 days, and Tunisia before that, I’m feeling the need for one of those quickie updates, so here goes (even if there is relatively little progress to report):
- Iran: P5+1 Ankara meeting at the end of January went badly, some say because Ahmedinejad did not take advantage of what the Americans were offering. I don’t think we’ve heard the last of it.
- Pakistan: Messy (that’s what I call it when a President has to call for a roundtable conference), but no big crisis.
- North Korea: Quiescent for the moment, but mil/mil talks have stalled.
- Afghanistan: Lots of reports of military progress from David Petraeus, and some sign that the Taliban may be looking for negotiations, or at least that is how I interpret their putting out the word that they might break with Al Qaeda.
- Iraq: some Arab/Kurdish progress that will allow oil to flow north. My friend Reidar Visser doesn’t think that’s good, but I do.
- Israel/Palestine: Biggest news has been the Palestine papers, widely interpreted to suggest Palestinian weakness, ineptitude or both. I think they show the Israelis overplaying their hand to no good purpose.
- Egypt: Trouble. This is what I said at the end of the year: “succession plans founder as the legitimacy of the parliament is challenged in the streets and courts. Mubarak hangs on, but the uncertainties grow.” Did I get it right? All but that part about the courts anyway.
- Haiti: Presidential runoff postponed to March 20. President Preval’s favorite will not be on the ballot; former first lady Mirlande Manigat will face singer Michel Martelly.
- Al Qaeda: No news is good news.
- Yemen/Somalia: Yemen’s President Saleh has so far proved immune to Egyptian flu, but itmay not last forever. Parliament in Somalia has extended its own mandate for three more years, dismaying the paymasters in Washington and other capitals. Nice democracy lesson.
- Sudan: The independence referendum passed, as predicted (no genius in that). Lots of outstanding issues under negotiation. President Bashir is behaving himself, some say because of the carrots Washington has offered. In my experience indictment has that effect on most people.
- Lebanon: Indictments delivered, not published, yet.
- Syria: President Bashar al Assad is doing even better than Bashir of Yemen. No demonstrations materialized at all.
- Ivory Coast: Gbagbo and his entourage are still waiting for their first-class plane tickets. African Union is factfinding, in preparation for mediation. Could this be any slower?
- Zimbabwe: Mugabe continues to defy, sponsors riot in Harare. No real progress on implementation of powersharing agreement with the opposition.
- Balkans: Bosnia stuck on constitutional reform, Kosovo/Serbia dialogue blocked by government formation in Pristina, Macedonia still hung up on the “name” issue. See a pattern here? Some people just recycle their old problems.
- Tunisia: At last some place where there is progress: the former ruling party has been shuttered. Don’t hold your breath for that to happen in Egypt!
PS: on Algeria, see this interesting piece.
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Tags : Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Balkans, Egypt, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Ivory Coast, North Korea, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Zimbabwe
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“Balkans: Bosnia stuck on constitutional reform, Kosovo/Serbia dialogue blocked by government formation in Pristina, Macedonia still hung up on the “name” issue. See a pattern here? Some people just recycle their old problems.”
Hey, no fair on Kosovo’s new government! The reason there even were new elections is because the President complied promptly with a Supreme Court ruling that he was not in compliance with a law preventing the president from leading a political party. (He had withdrawn from any leadership role, so it hardly seemed he was “implementing” anything, but it was a ruling, and he set a good example by resigning. I think). So there were elections, and objections, and reruns in some places … They’re following their laws, not spinning their wheels. Thaci has promised a government by Independence Day (Feb. 17), so it’s not as though this seems set to drag on for weeks or months (as in Serbia, last time). (And BTW – does Belgium have a government yet?) And Thaci, who will probably be the new PM (unless he was whom Feith had in mind in saying no one connected with the alleged organ-trafficking scandal should be included in the government?) is saying that the dialog with Belgrade will be a top government priority.
As for Bosnia – what ever happened to all those complaints of election regularities there? Just newspaper fodder, or was it worse than Kosovo? Bosnia is a good argument for not ending the fighting too soon, I’m afraid. Assuming that getting people to stop fighting will eventually lead to a viable long-term solution doesn’t seem to be justified, after the world’s experience in BiH.
Macedonia – they’ve gone to the ICJ. Maybe we can hope for a clear-cut, decisive outcome at last. Just like in the Kosovo case. BTW2, any insights on just how sick that Chinese judge at the ICJ was that forced him to leave the case before the opinions were written? In Serbia, they were expecting miracles based on the fact that the Chinese government had deigned to weigh in on their side in presenting an oral argument.
From the Balkan perspective, the big question about events in Egypt will be whether the country will now recognize Kosovo’s independence. And if it does, how many other Arab states will follow its lead. The meeting of the Non-Aligned Nations in Belgrade this fall – to be chaired by Egypt, I believe – could be interesting.