Another big Friday: can Mubarak hang on?

President Mubarak didn’t step down this evening, as I confess I expected (along with almost everyone in Tahrir square as well as CIA Director Panetta), but his speech was a clear indication of how little he understands what is going on. He is still a goner, if only because he is so out of touch.

What he apparently did do is formally transfer all the powers constitutionally permitted to Vice President Omar Suleiman (the exceptions are dissolution of parliament, dismissal of the government and proposing constitutional amendments).  That will satisfy virtually no one in Tahrir square, where Suleiman is no more popular than Mubarak. The constitutional route the regime has taken will drive the protesters ever more definitively to choose an extra-constitutional path, one they would like to see guaranteed by the Army.

Tomorrow is Friday, the big day for demonstrating in Egypt.  The demonstrators had already succeeded earlier today in moving out of Tahrir square and blocking parliament.  Tomorrow they may head for the presidential palace, unless they get clever and decide to head for someplace else.

The Army’s position is highly ambiguous:

Based on the responsibility of the Armed Forces, and its commitment to protect the people, and to oversee their interests and security, and with a view to the safety of the nation and the citizenry, and of the achievements and properties of the great people of Egypt, and in affirmation and support for the legitimate demands of the people, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces convened today, 10 February 2011, to consider developments to date, and decided to remain in continuous session to consider what procedures and measures that may be taken to protect the nation, and the achievements and aspirations of the great people of Egypt.

Is this an auto-coup, an Army takeover in support of the regime? That might go along with the stealth crackdown that seemed to be growing even before today’s fiasco.  Journalists and organizers were finding themselves detained and harshly treated.  Neither the regime nor the protesters show signs of cracking.  Or is the Army reluctant to act against the demonstrators, as many in Tahrir square seem to believe?

I would still expect more crackdown, along with more protests, but with a likelihood that the Army will get fed up and go over to the demonstrators if asked to fire on the crowd.

There is no guarantee that this will end well, and a lot of indications that the regime is determined to make it end badly.  The initiative is now with the demonstrators:  they need to maintain their momentum, to stick with nonviolence, to convince the Army that it will do better without Mubarak than with him, and to prepare for negotiations.

Washington at this point will gain little from shifting back to support for Mubarak, who will have seen President Obama’s remarks this afternoon as an attempt to force Egypt’s transition to the next stage.  I’d suggest putting all the chips on democracy.  Stability is not likely to come for some time yet.

Can Mubarak survive?  He clearly intends to, even if in a weakened condition, and was at pains to assure the public in comforting thones this evening that he would be watching daily events closely.  I suppose anything is possible in this wild world, but I would also put my personal chips on the protesters.  If they don’t succeed tomorrow, they look determined enough to come back for more.