peacefare.net

He’s a goner, but nothing else is clear yet

Mubarak’s status is uncertain for the moment, but he is certainly out of power.  The Egyptian Army has apparently taken over, welcomed by the protesters.  They had wanted Mubarak out.  They welcome the Army  because it suggests a non-constitutional route for the immediate future–one that need not pay heed to the constitutional succession or the highly restrictive provisions controlling new elections. It is not yet clear whether they have really gotten their way.

Egypt is important to the U.S., but it is certainly going to be a different Egypt:  maybe one in the hands of the army, maybe one in the hands of the demonstrators, maybe some hybrid.  Short-term, U.S. interests might fare better in the hands of the army, but long-term Egypt will find its way to a more democratic regime, one way or the other.  It would be a mistake to get on the wrong side of that historical wave.  President Obama has already made it clear he welcomes what is coming, though the Americans still seem quite uncertain what precisely that is.

Can the peace with Israel be maintained?  Let’s remember that it has long been considered a “cold” peace, one that would avoid war but lacked the flow of people, goods, services and understanding that makes for a warm peace.  It could of course get colder, and likely will if the Muslim Brotherhood wins a strong position in Egypt that strengthens pro-Palestinian sentiment in Cairo.  But it is hard to picture what Egypt stands to gain from anything more belligerent than some strong words about mistreatment of people in Gaza.  Israel occupies no Egyptian territory, and it will not be in Egypt’s interest to help Hamas–a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate–with more than rhetoric and humanitarian relief.

A bit stronger Palestinian voice is in any event necessary to getting a Mideast peace agreement–that is the unequivocal lesson anyone can see written in the Palestinian papers, which document an Israel ready to reject even the most forthcoming of Palestinian offers.

The question of the moment is who is really in control of Egypt?  Will the Army shove Omar Suleiman aside, or will he remain in power?  If so, he’ll insist on an end to the demonstrations.  That would not satisfy the protesters and create real strains between them and the army.  Stay tuned.  The outcome is still unclear, even if it is moving in the direction of the protesters.