What a day!
What a day!
Somehow my friend Emile Hokayem came to the conclusion several days ago that events in Egypt would favor Tehran, by removing a strong U.S. ally and “rekindling” Arab pride. Today it looks as if he could not have been more wrong. I know lots of people would have preferred that the United States do more for the demonstrators earlier in the process, as I would have, but it seems to me the President has had his thumb on the scale in their favor for some time now. Look and hear what he had to say today:
It’s not just that he comes out on the right side–that is easy enough after the fact. But he comes out on the right side for the right reasons. This is an enthusiastic endorsement, unhedged by the kind of reserve that Emile and others would expect.
And rightly so. As Shibley Telhami argues today in Politico, a democratic Egypt will shrink the space in which extremism thrives, not increase it. It will also speak up more loudly for the Palestinians, something that really is necessary if an agreement is to be reached–someone needs to save the Israelis from their single-minded drive towards a one-state solution.
What worries me is not Egypt’s regional impact or its effect on Israel, but rather completion of its democratic trajectory. As the President said today, this is a beginning, not an end. We’ve seen what happens when revolutions are hijacked–as in Iran–or stopped three-quarters of the way to the finish line–which is how I would describe Serbia. The turnover of power to the military, which is what happened today, cannot be allowed to get frozen in place.
There is at least a year ahead of difficult transition, and more likely several years. It will sometimes be hard to tell which is the right path. Egyptians have chosen wisely so far, and we are wise to let them continue to choose. But for the moment: what a day!
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Dear Daniel,
I fear you got my argument wrong on many levels. For a start, I am glad the US administration favored democratic change over the status quo. A narrative that contradicts the Khomeinist one has emerged indigenously and this, plus the Green movement’s own efforts, will be the best tools to contain Iran’s disruptive influence in the region.
What I was saying is that 1- the US has no narrative to oppose to Iran in the competition for influence because there is no community of values between the US and its allies contrary to Iran and its allies and 2- US regional policy (i.e. containment of Iran) is going to be harder to sustain because Egypt now has more important things to deal with at home.