Day: February 12, 2011
The army begins to fill in the blanks
The Egyptian armed forces have issued their 4th communique’, which tries to clarify at least a few things for the transitional period between now and eventual civilian, democratic government (“an elected civilian state to rule the country for building a free democratic state” is the way the New York Times translates it).
Here is a paraphrased summary from Egyptian Chronicles:
- The army is obliged to what was said in the previous communiqués.
- The government and the people to return back to their responsibilities toward the country.
- The current government and governors will continue performing its duties till we have a new elected government.
- The council is looking forward to guarantee the peaceful transitional of power in a democratic system that allows civil state.
- Egypt respects its international treaties
- The army calls the people of Egypt to cooperate with the police.
It appears that the current intention is to leave the Mubarak-appointed government in place in the interim, though at least one of its ministers seems to have been barred from leaving the country and is under house arrest. I have my doubts whether this will stand, since the protesters are likely to view it as a red line. Egypt’s leading democracy advocates have wanted something considerably more: a new, technocratic government and an end to the state of emergency, which the army has promised in a previous communique’ once the conditions are right.
There is no mention of a specific election date, which is just as well since it will take time to prepare anything like free and fair elections that offer a real opportunity for competition among political forces. Obviously the NDP–Mubarak’s National Democratic Party–is a problem (the Tunisians recently banned their own dictator’s former ruling party). But so too is the Muslim Brotherhood, which has an enormous advantage from being organized and well-established, even if illegal.
Items 2. and 6. ask for a return to normalcy, including cooperation with a police force that grossly misbehaved during the demonstrations (and there seem still to be hundreds of people missing). This is to be expected, and first indications are that many demonstrators are prepared to leave Tahrir at least until next Friday. The cleanup of Cairo by legions of volunteers is a very good sign that Egyptians have understood that the new regime will require responsibility as well as allow freedom.
Item 5 on treaties is an attempt in five English words to dispose of international concerns, especially about the peace treaty with Israel.
This isn’t much to go on, and in particular I find it difficult to believe that the government won’t be replaced, as has been rumored today. While Omar Suleiman seems to have evaporated for the moment, I also have to wonder whether he hopes for a continuing role in this transition, or will he be happy enough if he is not held accountable for the criminal behavior of the police and security services?
That is the big point omitted so far from the armed forces’ communiques: accountability. You can be pretty sure that the Egyptian army will protect its extensive perquisites, at least for the near term. But you have to wonder what will happen with the secret police, judges, jailers, torturers and others who were pillars of the Mubarak regime. It is of course too early to expect much to happen, but intentions are important too. Mubarak was one man, whose assets in Switzerland have already been frozen. What of all the cronies?
If you haven’t had enough videos of demonstrations lately, here’s one from today in Algiers, which some expect to get Tunisian flu next:
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