Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia

Gaddafi may be mad, but he is not always wrong.  Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia.  It is much more dangerous, both for its own citizens and for the wider world.

Gaddafi has chosen the option Ben Ali, Mubarak and the Bahraini monarchy shied away from:  brutal crackdown.  He is using non-Libyans in large part for the purpose, since he can’t rely on Libyans (a good sign, ironically, of the effectiveness of the protests).  “Mercenaries,” as the international press calls them, can be expected to do what you pay them to do, especially if you pay them well and they are surrounded by a hostile population not their own.  Gaddafi is trying to re-instill fear, which is absolutely necessary if he is to remain in power.

It is difficult to see how that is possible.  He has already lost large parts of the country, including Benghazi in the east but also large parts of the west and south.  A good part of the police and army are joining the protesters.  The Interior Minister has resigned, as have quite a few diplomats at missions abroad.  Tripoli seems far from secure for the regime, though protesters seem to be keeping out of the streets today.  Friday is likely when the challenge will come, as it is difficult to keep people from going to mosque.

The question then is how much more damage Gaddafi will wreck before the violence gets him.  It could be quite a bit, as he is still well-armed.  The Italians are letting out that as many as 1000 have already died, and tens of thousands are fleeing (both Libyans and foreigners).  Reports from Tripoli suggest corpses are being left in the street intentionally, a warning to would-be protesters.  Oil production is grinding to a halt, and oil prices have bumped strongly upwards.  This spreads economic damage from Libya worldwide, at a delicate moment in the global economic recovery.

How can the pain and suffering be shortened?  First and foremost, it needs to be made clear to Gaddafi’s loyalists that they will be held responsible for what they do on his behalf.  This has the virtue of making them think twice about carrying out his orders.  It also has the defect of making those who do carry out the orders even more determined not to fail.

Second, it is important to cut off his resources. This means freezing assets, banning travel and imposing an arms embargo.  No regime loyalist should be able to move a dime outside Libya, and the only travel allowed to them should be for purposes of defection.

I am not a fan of John Kerry’s proposal to stop his oil exports.  They are likely to stop anyway because the companies will close down production until they feel the situation has stabilized.  With large parts of the country already liberated, choking the whole country to get at one man is just not smart politics.  And closing down oil production will jack up world prices even more, causing global economic damage, providing Gaddafi with a windfall if he is able to bank the proceeds, and making allies who stand to lose a good deal from the situation (like the Italians) quiver.

No fly zones are notoriously ineffectual in preventing harm to individual citizens.  Strafing and bombing from the air is just not necessary.  Most days (but maybe not on Friday), Gaddafi can do just as well sending out thugs with AK47’s. Aircraft were not needed for genocide in Rwanda.

I do like the idea of human rights monitors.  Rumor has it that Gaddafi is letting in some of the international press, which is good if it happens.  He is betting that he can now contain the situation, at least in Tripoli, with minimal use of force.  Let him bet on that with human rights professionals as well as with journalists. Anything that helps Libya’s citizens be less afraid will accelerate the end of the regime.

The international reaction to events in Libya so far has been disappointing.  The Arab League has suspended Libyan membership, which admittedly is more than it often does in crisis situation.  The UN Security Council statement from yesterday is weak.  Its only virtue is the mention of human rights monitors and accountability.  President Obama has not yet said anything, even if Secretary of State Clinton has vigorously deplored what is going on.

I am hoping that after today’s evacuation of Amcits (those are U.S. citizens) that the Administration will find not only its voice but also its muscle.  The Sixth Fleet should be moving assets towards Libya and getting ready for action if Gaddafi has enough of an army left to send it against cities that have already fallen to the demonstrators.