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The UN begins to roll

It is starting to look as if the UN Security Council will actually do something about Libya soon.  Its draft resolution includes asset freeze, arms embargo, travel ban.  There may also be movement towards a no-fly zone, despite reported opposition in the State Department.  Michael Knights has treated that proposition well (http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/templateC05.php?CID=3315–sorry, just can’t get their links to work right).  In tears at the UNSC, the Libyan Perm Rep (Ambassador to the UN in New York) denounced his long friendship with Gaddafi and pleaded for action.  The Libyan mission in Geneva has also defected to the protesters, as have other Libyan diplomatic missions.

Meanwhile, the situation in Libya is confused. Gaddafi apparently appeared in Green square:

His forces continued to murder protesters, but rebels made progress outside Tripoli, especially in the east.  While his position today seems precarious at best, it cannot be excluded that Gaddafi will reestablish himself in the capital, but if he does it will only prolong Libya’s suffering. His son, Saif al Islam, is apparently offering to negotiate, claiming he is holding back the army.

While UN action today will not likely have any immediate effect, it is important that the forces loyal to Gaddafi begin to understand that there is no future with the regime.  The possibility of prosecution for the crimes being committed now has to be made real.

Gaddafi and his sons seem determined, as Saif put it today, “to live and die in Libya.”  It will be better for Libya and the rest of the world if both can be done quickly.

The UN needs to hustle

Today is Friday, when the demonstrators will try again to assemble in Tripoli. It has been Libya week, all week.  The situation has gone from bad to worse.  Claiming that the protesters have been drugged by Osama bin Laden, Gaddafi is increasingly delusional and homicidal (forget the picture–it’s the audio you want to hear):

Many Libyans are courageously disloyal to him, but the international community is doing nothing effective.  I hope to have to revise that last phrase, but I see no reason to do so yet.

President Obama was slow to react, apparently because of concern for American citizens in Libya.  When he finally said something, it was forceful and clear, especially on holding people to account.  But there is no clear course of action yet.  Asset freeze?  Travel ban?  Arms embargo?  International Criminal Court referral by the Security Council?

A no-fly zone has pros and cons. I wouldn’t want to waste a lot of effort discussing it at the UN Security Council or at NATO, but I do hope the necessary 6th Fleet assets have been moved into position.  Washington needs to be ready for all contingencies.

The last best hope is that Gaddafi’s loyalists will abandon him to his fate (or commit him to it).  There have been quite a few high-level defections, so that does not seem completely out of the question.  It is difficult to believe someone won’t try.

One mistake the rebel forces are making (hard to call them “protesters” any longer) is violence against the non-Libyan paramilitaries that Gaddafi has imported for protection.  I realize he pays them well, but you don’t want them to stick with Gaddafi because they also fear for their lives.  A promise of back pay and a ticket home would weaken mercenary resolve faster than killing them.

The Administration is apparently defining Libya as a humanitarian and human rights crisis.  If this is an effort to make it easier to invoke “responsibility to protect,” so be it.  But in my way of think Gaddafi’s actions are a clear threat to international peace and security.  The Security Council is on the hook for this one, whether it likes it or not.  The Russians and Chinese apparently asked yesterday for more information about what is happening on the ground.  The Chinese should talk to some of the 12,000 citizens they have already evacuated.

That said, it is a good idea to try to send in a  UN inquiry, a proposition that will apparently be discussed tomorrow at the UN Human Rights Commission.  This is far better than the previous proposition, which was a discussion Monday.

The UN needs to hustle.  People are dying.