Think ahead to building a Libyan state
Gaddafi has now become a dead man walking–it is only a matter of time before the rebellion that controls most of Libya catches up with him. That, however, could take some time. By all reports, the Libyans are good tunnelers, so he will have lots of places to hide, like Saddam Hussein.
That is a problem: anyone remember how Saddam’s stay-behind operation wrecked Iraq’s ministries, destroyed its files and its buildings and made it impossible for the Americans to turn over authority to the Iraqis quickly? Libya has much less institutional structure to wreck, but some of it like the oil ministry is presumably vital. The rebellion has to plan its entry into Tripoli with care, trying to ensure that it makes a clean and quick capture of the institutions, as well as the man.
In order to do that, the rebels have to stay united, which will not be easy. Libya’s tribal and geographic divisions will compete for influence within the rebel movement as it gets nearer to Tripoli, where control will provide wealth and power. There is no existing parliament, no constitution to amend and no chief of state position to occupy. If the violence continues to escalate, power will grow from the barrels of guns, which is not often a good place to initiate a move towards democracy. For all the difficulties Tunisia and Egypt are now facing, they are blessed to have civilian institutions whose roles are fairly well understood and more or less accepted, even if they now need changes. When the prime minister steps down, we know pretty much what that means in Tunis or Cairo. It would mean little in Tripoli.
The revolution underway is so far entirely of the Libyans, by the Libyans and for the Libyans, as it rightly should be. The international community has contributed the UNSC resolution, which helps to shape the environment but does not involve direct intervention.
Later on, Libya will likely need assistance when it gets to the institution-building stage, if only to gain control of its own oil production and revenue. But there is likely to be more needed: municipal and national government, political parties, civil society, proper financial institutions, independent courts are all lacking. The Libyans will be able and I hope willing to pay for much of what they need to develop new institutions, but it is not too early for people in Europe, the U.S. and the Arab world to be thinking about the requirements and how to provide them. Generosity should not stop the day the struggle in Tripoli is over.
Libya is likely once Tripoli falls to look more like a society emerging from conflict than either Tunisia or Egypt. We have not done brilliantly well in any of the post-conflict reconstruction efforts of the past 20 years, but a good deal has been learned and could be applied to a Libyan-led effort to establish the country’s own state institutions. It is not too early to start thinking about how to organize the international community’s efforts to help.
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