Month: February 2011
Stop the civil war
The Gaddafi family this morning seems bent on civil war. It is using the Libyan army and hired thugs to empty the streets of Tripoli, especially Green square, and to hold the relatively few towns in the west that have not yet fallen to the protesters (or should we call them the rebels?). Despite high level defections, the Colonel and his sons are using military force (tanks, RPGs, in addition to aircraft and helicopters earlier in the week) against the civilian population.
The risk here is civil war. Already what has occurred could leave Libya with a bitter legacy of murder and mayhem, now against the population, but likely in the future against the regime. Or, worse, the regime could survive, reimposing order and slaughtering its opponents.
President Obama was clear enough yesterday that Gaddafi’s behavior is unacceptable, but the Administration still seems to lack a robust plan for stopping it. Sending the Secretary of State to a Monday meeting of the UN Human Rights Commission is not going to do it–that’s a body that has disappointed human rights concerns repeatedly. And Monday is still a long way off.
It looks now as if the best hope to avoid the worst is action from within Gaddafi’s closest circle. Who knows whether that is a real possibility, but the high-level defections that have already occurred suggest it might be. It might also be useful to make it clear to the non-Libyans defending Gaddafi that they are welcome to defect–so far the rebels appear to have been more inclined to kill them.
I am still puzzled by the lack of asset and travel freezes, as well as an arms embargo. Sure, they would be mostly symbolic at this point, but symbols count. And where is the Sixth Fleet?
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Good news for Kosovo, but tough talks ahead
I count as good news both the formation of the second Hashim Thaci government in Kosovo as well as the conviction of Serbia’s former assistant Interior Minister of war crimes and crimes against humanity by the Hague Tribunal.
Of course the story is more complicated than that. Thaci still faces accusations, but little evidence and no indictment, for serious crimes associated with organ trafficking that allegedly occurred in the aftermath of the NATO/Yugoslavia war more than a decade ago. His choice of Behgjet Pacolli as President of Kosovo, essential to gaining a majority in parliament, has also raised questions, as Pacolli’s construction business prospered doing work in Russia, which has opposed Kosovo’s independence. He was Both Pacolli and Thaci gained their positions with razor thin majorities.
Whatever the allegations and the size of their majority, their elections, and the appointment of a Serb as deputy prime minister, demonstrate that Kosovo’s institutions are functioning, if occasionally with difficulty. The need to repeat December’s elections in several municipalities showed both the challenges governance faces in Pristina and the capacity of its institutions to correct mistakes.
That said, Thaci and Pacolli have a difficult road ahead. Declaring yourself ready for talks with Belgrade and preparing for them seriously are two different things. Will they go to talks with Belgrade as a government with a razor-thin majority? Or will Pristina form a broader negotiating team, as it did for the Ahtisaari negotiations? The naming of the talented and tough-minded Edita Tahiri to lead the Kosovo team bodes well.
I hear the Europeans will focus in the first instance on customs on the Serbia/Kosovo border (boundary to the Serbs). This is an issue with virtues: there could be real benefits to the Kosovo, if Serbia agrees to accept its products. In addition, cooperation on customs implies some level of recognition that the authorities you are dealing with are properly constituted and have at least some sovereign attributes. There could also be some real benefits to Serbia, if smuggling comes under better control and if the European Union is willing to count the outcome of the dialogue as sufficient to allow Serbia to proceed to candidacy status.
But if the EU is going to go that far, Pristina will need to be certain that Serbia cannot become an EU member without accepting and recognizing Kosovo as a sovereign state. Several EU members have now said as much, but agreement on that position at 27 is difficult because of the five EU members that have not recognized Kosovo. Pristina is going to need some real statecraft to ensure that EU interest in accelerating Serbia’s membership does not come at Kosovo’s expense.
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Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia
Gaddafi may be mad, but he is not always wrong. Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia. It is much more dangerous, both for its own citizens and for the wider world.
Gaddafi has chosen the option Ben Ali, Mubarak and the Bahraini monarchy shied away from: brutal crackdown. He is using non-Libyans in large part for the purpose, since he can’t rely on Libyans (a good sign, ironically, of the effectiveness of the protests). “Mercenaries,” as the international press calls them, can be expected to do what you pay them to do, especially if you pay them well and they are surrounded by a hostile population not their own. Gaddafi is trying to re-instill fear, which is absolutely necessary if he is to remain in power.
It is difficult to see how that is possible. He has already lost large parts of the country, including Benghazi in the east but also large parts of the west and south. A good part of the police and army are joining the protesters. The Interior Minister has resigned, as have quite a few diplomats at missions abroad. Tripoli seems far from secure for the regime, though protesters seem to be keeping out of the streets today. Friday is likely when the challenge will come, as it is difficult to keep people from going to mosque.
The question then is how much more damage Gaddafi will wreck before the violence gets him. It could be quite a bit, as he is still well-armed. The Italians are letting out that as many as 1000 have already died, and tens of thousands are fleeing (both Libyans and foreigners). Reports from Tripoli suggest corpses are being left in the street intentionally, a warning to would-be protesters. Oil production is grinding to a halt, and oil prices have bumped strongly upwards. This spreads economic damage from Libya worldwide, at a delicate moment in the global economic recovery.
How can the pain and suffering be shortened? First and foremost, it needs to be made clear to Gaddafi’s loyalists that they will be held responsible for what they do on his behalf. This has the virtue of making them think twice about carrying out his orders. It also has the defect of making those who do carry out the orders even more determined not to fail.
Second, it is important to cut off his resources. This means freezing assets, banning travel and imposing an arms embargo. No regime loyalist should be able to move a dime outside Libya, and the only travel allowed to them should be for purposes of defection.
I am not a fan of John Kerry’s proposal to stop his oil exports. They are likely to stop anyway because the companies will close down production until they feel the situation has stabilized. With large parts of the country already liberated, choking the whole country to get at one man is just not smart politics. And closing down oil production will jack up world prices even more, causing global economic damage, providing Gaddafi with a windfall if he is able to bank the proceeds, and making allies who stand to lose a good deal from the situation (like the Italians) quiver.
No fly zones are notoriously ineffectual in preventing harm to individual citizens. Strafing and bombing from the air is just not necessary. Most days (but maybe not on Friday), Gaddafi can do just as well sending out thugs with AK47’s. Aircraft were not needed for genocide in Rwanda.
I do like the idea of human rights monitors. Rumor has it that Gaddafi is letting in some of the international press, which is good if it happens. He is betting that he can now contain the situation, at least in Tripoli, with minimal use of force. Let him bet on that with human rights professionals as well as with journalists. Anything that helps Libya’s citizens be less afraid will accelerate the end of the regime.
The international reaction to events in Libya so far has been disappointing. The Arab League has suspended Libyan membership, which admittedly is more than it often does in crisis situation. The UN Security Council statement from yesterday is weak. Its only virtue is the mention of human rights monitors and accountability. President Obama has not yet said anything, even if Secretary of State Clinton has vigorously deplored what is going on.
I am hoping that after today’s evacuation of Amcits (those are U.S. citizens) that the Administration will find not only its voice but also its muscle. The Sixth Fleet should be moving assets towards Libya and getting ready for action if Gaddafi has enough of an army left to send it against cities that have already fallen to the demonstrators.
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The Security Council throws a wet noodle
Lifting from CNN, here is what the UN Security Council said today about Libya:
…condemned the violence and use of force against civilians, deplored the repression against peaceful demonstrators and expressed deep regret at the deaths of hundreds of civilians…[and urged the authorities]…to act with restraint, to respect human rights and international humanitarian law and to allow immediate access to international human rights monitors and humanitarian agencies….[also] underscored the need to hold to account those responsible for attacks, including by forces under their control, on civilians.
This is about as weak as it gets, except for the part about human rights monitors and accountability. The question is whether there is a real plan behind these words, or just hot air.
The UN should be asking the Libyan government urgently to allow unarmed human rights monitors into Libya. This was what was done when the Serbs were misbehaving in Kosovo. Though it was too little too late, it focused attention on the problem and gave the international community some leverage over the Milosevic regime.
Accountability is also something that requires action, not just words. Where is the commitment to gathering evidence and bringing an indictment?
No travel bans or asset freezes? No arms embargo? I understand not going right away for the no-fly zone, but what’s the justification for not acting on these issues? Is this really all we can get out of the Security Council, even when the Libyan delegation to the UN has defected and what we need is swift action?
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A timely and decisive response to madness
In an extraordinary display of bozotic madness and ferocious bellicose, Muammar Gaddafi today threatened to treat his own people the way the Chinese treated theirs at Tiananmen. He also encouraged vigilante action against protesters, whom he accused of being drug-crazed advocates of breaking up Libya or turning it into an Islamic state, and threatened to execute as many people as need be. He offered vague reforms of municipal governance but little else of substance, while denouncing the Libyan people’s lack of gratitude for all he had done for them.
This was one of the extraordinary moments of our time: an autocrat of almost 42 years standing unable to comprehend that his people want him out. He is trying to re-instil fear in Libya and could temporarily succeed. Certainly nothing in his speech today suggested that it would be safe to continue demonstrating in Tripoli. Rarely has a thug outlined more clearly his murderous intentions.
The Libyan people will decide their own reaction to Gaddafi’s ranting. I find it difficult to suggest what they should do, given the risks they will have to run if they return to the streets. I’ll be surprised though if they don’t try to return to Green square, or someplace else symbolic in Tripoli, by Friday.
What should the international community do? The most immediate hopes lie in the Arab League and the UN Security Council. The Arab League meeting today is unlikely to do much, since its members are all frightened that their country might be next. But they need to consider the possibility that failure to act against Gaddafi may in fact increase their own risks.
The UN Security Council needs to take definite serious action at its meeting this afternoon. I suggested yesterday the litany of things they could do. In the harsh light of today, I would recommend the following, in priority order:
- Declare the need for “timely and decisive response” under the 2009 report of the Secretary General on the responsibility to protect;
- Send the Secretary General to Tripoli to negotiate an international observer mission aimed at protecting Libya’s population from war crimes and crimes against humanity.
- Freeze assets and ban travel of regime principals.
- Prohibit arms sales.
- Begin discussion of further measures: no-fly zone, deposit of proceeds from Libyan oil sales into a UN-managed account, freeze on oil exports.
These are complicated issues that need to be carefully examined for their feasibility and usefulness.
In the meanwhile, the Sixth Fleet should be moving assets towards the Libyan coast, even if that will give Gaddafi something to cry “imperialism” about. I doubt any of his planes or helicopters will fly if a carrier battle group is close by.
In his 2009 report, the Secretary General said:
…when confronted with crimes or violations relating
to the responsibility to protect or their incitement, today the world is less likely to
look the other way than in the last century.
Let’s pray he was correct. Now is the time to prove it.
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Time to act
Here is President Obama’s statement from three days ago:
I am deeply concerned by reports of violence in Bahrain, Libya and Yemen. The United States condemns the use of violence by governments against peaceful protesters in those countries and wherever else it may occur. We express our condolences to the family and friends of those who have been killed during the demonstrations. Wherever they are, people have certain universal rights including the right to peaceful assembly. The United States urges the governments of Bahrain, Libya and Yemen to show restraint in responding to peaceful protests, and to respect the rights of their people.
This statement had a good impact in Bahrain, where the monarchy saved its skin by withdrawing army and policy from Pearl square and allowing the Crown Prince to make a truly conciliatory statement.
But today was a day of carnage in Libya according to many reports: jet fighters strafing demonstrators, thugs shooting into crowds, perhaps 250 fatalities. While the State Department has expressed “grave concern” and ordered an evacuation of its own personnel, President Obama has been silent and no specific counter-action, even an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, has been announced. We need to hear from the President what he is prepared to do.
It is time to act. The Twittersphere is full of recommendations for a no-fly zone, which would be fine by me if the UN Security Council can move quickly to order one. I am not convinced that unilateral U.S. action along those lines would be welcomed even among the protesters in Libya, and we should note that it would prevent defections like the two colonels who flew to Malta today. But letting it be known that one or more aircraft carriers is moving towards North Africa even before the UNSC acts could inhibit some of Gaddafi’s worst behavior.
What else could be done? The Arab League is said to be meeting tomorrow to discuss Libya. That is only a good thing if they drop their usual hesitancy to criticize a reigning sovereign and denounce Gaddafi’s attacks on his own people. I hope the Americans are demarching (that diplomatese for talking to/asking) every Arab League capital by morning pointing out that what Gaddafi is doing is counterproductive and will rouse the public in many other countries.
In any event, I trust the Americans are making it clear in Tripoli that what is going on needs to stop right away. It is not only Libya that is at risk–if Gaddafi succeeds in his effort to repress the demonstrators, which is possible though unlikely–you’ll see every tyrant in the Middle East copying his lead. That would not be a pretty picture.
PS: A few more things the UNSC could do: freeze assets and ban travel of regime principals, prohibit arms sales, send the Secretary General to Tripoli to negotiate for deployment of a group of observers.
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