To intervene or not to intervene

That’s the question today.  With Muammar Gaddafi striking out in several directions with superior fire power and aircraft against the Libyan rebels,  at least some of the rebel leadership in the east is talking about the need for foreign military intervention, including a No Fly Zone (NFZ), possibly bombing of Gaddafi’s amply hardened bunkers, and weapons.  Secretary of Defense Gates has already said “no.”  American assets are tied up elsewhere and there is no telling where it will end once we start.

He has a point.  The Libyans should take care of Gaddafi on their own.  With no clearly and legally constituted Libyan authority to ask for help, it is unlikely that the Russians and Chinese are going to go along with a UN Security Council resolution authorizing even the NFZ, never mind broader use of force.  For the U.S. to intervene unilaterally in Libya at this point would be seen as injudicious, even criminal, by a large part of the world.  And even with UNSC authorization, it is arguable that we just don’t have the capacity to handle another mess.

But failing to act and watching Gaddafi reestablish control over Tripoli, if not of the rest of the country, is also not an acceptable option.  It would prolong the agony, including the agony to the rest of the world of soaring oil prices that threaten to stall the global economic recovery.  It would open the possibility of Libya becoming a fragmented and failed state like Somalia, one in which international terrorists might well find comfort and haven.  And it would leave Libyans at the mercy of a homicidal non-maniac, one who has long used murder and mayhem purposefully to ensure control.

So what do we do?  I find myself sympathetic with former National Security Advisor Steve Hadley, who argued last night on CNN for a more intense diplomatic effort.  I’m not really sure what he had in mind, but in my book that would mean in the first instance making sure Gaddafi’s sources of financing are completely closed off.  Is oil still being exported?  Where are the payments being deposited?  Are all those accounts frozen?  The U.S. Treasury has likely done its job well, but have the Italians, the Germans, the Maltese, the Cypriots and the Greeks?

I think we also need to talk in the UNSC about a new resolution that would authorize arms exports to the Libyan rebels.  Paul Wolfowitz argues that it was a mistake to impose a blanket embargo, thus punishing the rebels as well as Gaddafi, who is already well-armed (and his suppliers won’t balk at violating the embargo).  He is right, but it is a mistake that can and should be fixed as soon as possible with some diplomatic exertion, by opening an exception to the embargo for the anti-Gaddafi forces.

I continue to be hesitant about the NFZ, largely because of the difficulty and expense of implementing it.  It would be far easier, as I’ve already said, to nail anything Gaddafi flies to the tarmac even before it takes off.  In lieu of that, our diplomats should be talking with the Russians, Serbs and Czechs about ending any supplies or technical assistance they might still be providing to Gaddafi’s air force, which they have amply assisted in the past.

None of this can substitute for indigenous efforts to get rid of Gaddafi.  Tough as it is to assemble and protest, Friday should not pass without a clear show from the demonstrators in Tripoli that they want him gone.

It would also greatly improve the situation if the Libyans could organize to speak with one voice.  It is not yet clear that any of the committees in Benghazi and other cities is more than a local phenomenon.  Despite the difficult circumstances, Libyans need to do now what Gaddafi has prevented them from doing for more than 40 years:  organize a national institution that can speak legitimately for the Jamahiriya.  That may require some international assistance in linking up the various rebel cities in a more coherent way.

If none of this diplomatic effort works, we’ll have to revisit the essential question over the weekend, which means putting the assets needed into place right away.

One intervention needs to start now:  relief for the more or less 150,000 non-Libyan refugees who have fled Libya and accumulated on the border with Tunisia, as well as assistance to the many internally displaced Libyans.  This will not be easy, but providing food, water, sanitation and shelter to these people is vital if we are to avoid a massive humanitarian catastrophe.