Day: March 7, 2011
Plus jamais!
This post is contributed by an Ivoirian student living in the U.S.
Following numerous peace agreements, presidential elections were finally held in Cote d’Ivoire in November 2010 to put an end to the decade-long political instability in the country. In the aftermath of this election, qualified as fair and transparent by the international community, Cote d’Ivoire has plunged into turmoil. Incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo, supported by some elements of the army, refused to step down and is accusing the international community—including the UN, which supervised the elections—of orchestrating an electoral putsch.
As the international community is absorbed by the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, very little attention has been given to the numerous human rights violations in the West African nation, where the elected president Mr. Alassane Ouattara and his government are trying to run the country from an Abidjan hotel under UN protection.
On a daily basis, the national media—controlled by Mr.Gabgbo—relay propaganda messages against the UN, the international community, the elected government those who support it. Northerners are particularly subject to attack. Mosques have been burned and imams killed, with Gbagbo’s security forces either participating directly or standing by to supervise. Like Radio Mille Collines in Rwanda, national television in Cote d’Ivoire continues to have a disastrous effect on the already bleak situation of the country. International media have been banned in Cote d’Ivoire and local journalists are being intimidated and even abducted by the forces loyal to Gbagbo.
The same forces have contained all demonstrations by using lethal force. According to the UN, the official death toll is now close to 400. Unofficial sources are closer to over 600. Last Thursday, a peaceful demonstration of women ended in a blood bath as forces loyal to Mr.Gbagbo opened fire in the crowd. This event has been reported in the US media but no image has filtered out so far. Here is a link to amateur video of this event. Viewer discretion is advised as these images are extremely disturbing.
The African Union panel appointed to find a peaceful solution to the crisis last week asked for an extension of one month. This is more time than the Ivorian people can afford. Mr Ggagbo has to be stopped immediately. Cote d’Ivoire is no longer susceptible to mediation.
As advocated by ICG on March 3, the UN should support an immediate military intervention of ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States, which has intervened successfully in other instances). In addition action needs to be taken to shut down the national television, which plays a destructive role by openly supporting and legitimizing violence, including against the UN peacekeeping force. This could be accomplished easily with the appropriate technology by jamming frequencies.
In taking these actions, the international community could contribute to avoiding another Rwanda-in-the-making in Cote d’Ivoire. “We did not realize” should no longer be an excuse for inaction. Cote d’Ivoire is slowly slipping into a civil war that could destabilize West Africa. It is imperative that the international community keep it on the agenda.
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Not yet time to use oil reserves
Dan Yergin is right: it is not yet time to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Why not?
The 727 billion barrel SPR is intended for use in an oil supply disruption. Libya has partially disrupted its own oil supplies, but they are relatively small, about 1.5 million barrels per day of exports. Oil prices are spiking, but not because of the Libyan supply disruption. As Yergin says, they are anticipating risks in the future, risks like demonstrations in Saudi Arabia that might disrupt the massive supplies that come from its Shia-populated Eastern Province.
We should be urging oil exporting countries to increase their production in response to higher prices, which they are likely to do in any case, and holding our own reserves in reserve for the possibility that things will get worse, possibly much worse. The market is telling us that is a real possibility.
I spent the years 1982-85, when oil prices fell sharply, preparing for an oil supply disruption and the resulting spike in prices as the U.S. representative to the emergency committee at the International Energy Agency. I trust the plans we developed then for a coordinated (with friends and allies) draw of oil stocks early in a supply disruption have been much improved since. Relatively small emergency drawdowns of the SPR were authorized during Desert Storm in 1991 and after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Loans and exchanges have been used to meet other exigencies.
I understand that there is a real need for the White House to be seen as doing something to counter the rise in oil prices and defend the economic recovery. But there is a real risk that turmoil in the Middle East will eventually disrupt many millions of barrels per day of oil supply, making things much worse than they are today. I’d wait to see the whites of oil disruption’s eyes before using our most important, but inherently limited, weapon to defend against a price spike.
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