Counter revolution advances, not only in Libya
With the U.S. and Europe hesitating to take action against Gaddafi, the counter-revolution is in full swing, not only in Libya. The Saudis have prevented any sizable demonstrations and have sent military forces into Bahrain to reinforce its effort to repress the demonstrations, which yesterday focused on Manama’s financial district. In Yemen, seven were killed over the weekend and many more injured as the government used deadly force against university demonstrators. Demonstrators and local doctors are also claiming that some sort of illegal poison gas was used:
In Libya, Gaddafi’s forces have taken Brega and are headed east towards Benghazi. The once hopeful rebellion appears headed for defeat, if not oblivion. The past several days of inaction have had serious consequences, as Tripoli has used its unchallenged air force and superior fire power to force the rebels out of several key positions. Libyan forces are now approaching Adjabiya. Their long supply lines now represent the last, best hope of the rebellion to prevent the fall of Benghazi.
Will these reversals encourage conservative forces in Tunisia and Egypt to hold on to what positions they can, or even strike back to counter changes already in progress? Are the reversals temporary setbacks, or are we witnessing the end of the (early) Arab spring? Will the protesters find ways of reviving their efforts? Will the regimes turn their backs on protester aspirations or look for ways to offer more meaningful reforms? Lots of questions, few answers.
PS: Little did I know when I wrote this that Jackson Diehl had already asked similar questions, with a somewhat more pessimistic spin, in this morning’s Washington Post.
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What a difference a few hours can make: the Revolutionary Army is currently back in Brega. The BBC has a good article http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12732613 on why desert fighting tends to be fluid and hard to predict. (And by the way, didn’t Colin Powell once say that “we do deserts” ?) If the good guys can hold on long enough so the EU and US start pondering the idea of floods of political refugees fleeing for their lives, not just jobs, they may start to see the advisability of doing something more than imposing sanctions on billionaire rulers and weapons bans on people fighting for a chance at democracy. Luckily for me, anonymous posters aren’t usually actually tasked with the job of actually coming up with a list of these options.