US and UN too slow, Benghazi at risk
Since Saif al Islam is predicting the fall of Benghzai within 48 hours, it seems a good time to put up this rap, courtesy of the Russian channel RT:
Senator Kerry said today at the Carnegie Endowment that international efforts to oust Gaddafi will not end even if he represses the rebellion and that his survival will not reverse the tide of democratci change sweeping the Middle East. I trust he is correct, but Saddam Hussein survived sanctions for a long time, which gave heart to many of his fellow dictators around the world.
Remember Machiavelli? He wrote on this very subject in Chapter 3 of The Prince (Wooton translation):
Of course it is true that, after a ruler has regained power in rebel teritories, he is much more likely to hang on to it. For the rebellion gives him an excuse, and he is able to take firmer measures to secure his position, punishing delinquents, checking up on suspects, and taking precautions where needed. So, if the first time the King of France lost Milan all that was needed to throw him out was Duke Ludovico growling on his borders, to throw him out a second time it took the whole world united against him…
To the Senator’s credit, he too noted that if Gaddafi stayed on it might cost us more in the end than if we acted now.
Kerry also made it clear that he thought the U.S. and the UN were acting too slowly on Libya. There was little hint he expected any acceleration. It would be nice to think that Saif will have to eat his words come Friday, but I doubt it. Wishing won’t make it so.
On Bahrain and I think Yemen (I confess my live-tweeting got in the way of my hearing), Kerry advocated dialogue. Morocco and Jordan he thought were adopting reasonable reform measures. He had harsh words for Iran, but thought the U.S. had not been sufficiently responsive to measures Syria has taken.
Kerry’s main point in today’s talk was the need for a substantial new political and economic aid program for Egypt, Tunisia and other countries trying to establish democracy, akin to the successful SEED program for Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. This is a fine idea, if its backers (Kerry/McCain/Lieberman) can get it past the House Tea Party.
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Hillary Clinton says in a CBS interview quoted here http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-16/clinton-says-arab-league-vote-for-no-fly-zone-changed-minds-1-.html that the Arab League vote has produced a “sea-change” in international thinking about a NFZ and that Lebanon’s ambassador will call for one at the SC. The date-line is today, Wednesday, but is this yesterday’s SC session she was talking about, the one where nothing happened? It sounds like good news, if it’s still relevant. Especially good if the Arab countries are willing to participate. Is everybody just waiting for a massacre to justify action? Or for Gaddhafi to win, to justify inaction?
Machiavelli also said it’s better for a ruler to be feared than loved. The way we’re going, the US won’t be either.