Even good resolutions don’t suffice
The Libya Security Council resolution no. 1973 that passed this evening looks very good to me, though I confess I failed to notice that the arms embargo applied to the rebels when the last one passed (and I don’t think this one fixes that problem). I guess the Egyptians are fixing it. I would also note that a cease-fire in place really favors Gaddafi’s forces, but I have my doubts it will take effect any time soon.
The important thing is that this resolution authorizes all necessary means, short of an occupation, to protect civilians. It also tightens the arms embargo as well as the financial and other sanctions. It passed, with five abstentions, including China, Russia, Brazil, India and Germany. That is a remarkable achievement, and my hat is off to US Permanent Representative Ambassador Susan Rice.
The key thing now is implementation. The Srebrenica UNSC resolution (no. 819 of 1993) looked pretty good to a lot of people too, and its purpose was remarkably similar to this one: to protect civilians from murderous thugs. But Colum Lynch listed it last year as among the 10 worse UN Security Council resolutions ever.
The difference, if there is to be one, has to come from implementation. The problem with the resolution declaring Srebrenica a “safe area” was not the objective–it was the lack of ways and means to achieve the objective. When the U.S. did eventually seek to protect the UN safe areas in Bosnia by bombing the Serb forces in response to an attack on Sarajevo, it quickly shifted the tide of war and led to a very rapid advance by the Croat and Bosniak forces.
Precious little has been said so far about implementation of no. 1973. There are rumors the French will begin acting tonight, but there are also rumors that NATO is not yet ready. Some Arab countries are said to be willing to participate in military action, but that is not confirmed. It is not clear whether the U.S. will participate, or whether it will do so in stand-off fashion with cruise missiles and the like.
So the Benghazis do well to celebrate, but this fight isn’t over yet, and its outcome is still very much in doubt.
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