Anyone still interested in Macedonia?
Last time I headlined a blog post asking whether anyone out there was interested in Macedonia, I got a ton of visitors to www.peacefare.net, so I thought I would try again. Here are my notes for a presentation I did yesterday. I was asked to focus on cross-border linkages. No fair asking what others said, or who else was there, or where this discussion was held: it was done (in DC) under Chatham House rules. Needless to say, these notes were not delivered verbatim, but they are true to what I said and represent my views:
Macedonia
March 21, 2011
1. I was asked to explore the interconnections in the Balkans – including cross-border issues – from a Macedonia-focused perspective.
2. I suppose being a talking head on the Balkans over the past 15 years does gives me some perspective on the issues. Before that I was Mr. Federation in Bosnia as well as an office director in State Department Intelligence and Research in 1996-97, when we tracked Dayton implementation, the virtual collapse of Albania, the rise of the Kosovo Liberation Army and the Zajedno demonstrations.
3. Let there be no doubt: what happens in Kosovo does not stay in Kosovo, and what happens in Bosnia doesn’t stay in Bosnia.
4. I imagine it is perfectly obvious to all of us that ethnic partition in either of Macedonia’s neighbors could be catastrophic for Macedonia. Certainly the Macedonians understood this when they recognized Kosovo, hoping that its borders would not be changed, and proceeded successfully with the demarcation of their own border with the new state.
5. Likewise, if Macedonia comes apart it will affect Kosovo and Bosnia. That is not the issue today, but I can assure you it was the issue in 2000/2001, when a very calm and rational Prime Minister Georgievski called me in, making me promise that I would not bring the American Ambassador or Jim Pardew.
6. He then told me he wanted to partition Macedonia and asked that I take that message back to Washington.
7. I refused, telling him I did not work for the U.S. Government but knew perfectly well how unwelcome his proposal would be.
8. The problem with partition is not only the idea of drawing a line, but the difficulty of deciding where to draw it. This is especially true for Macedonia, where the largest Albanian city is Shkup. Look at the difficulties that have arisen over a Church museum on the “wrong” side of the river. Can you imagine what it would take to draw a new national border at the river? The answer is clear: war. And that war would quickly spread to Kosovo and to Bosnia.
9. So disintegration is subject to the domino theory in the Balkans. What about integration?
10. Certainly we know that integration works well for the organized crime networks, which have no difficulty cooperating across borders.
11. I hasten to add that this is also true for the taxi drivers. One day in 2000 or 2001, when my staff had failed in weeks of efforts to arrange ground transportation from Belgrade to Pristina, I called the concierge at the Hyatt.
12. The next day Milenko, the doctor of taxi cab science, deposited me at Gate 3, Podujevo, and I was picked up by his “colleague” from Pristina.
13. I have taxi-hiked all over the Balkans since.
14. Once I got to Pristina, I quickly ran out of Serbian cell phone credits. Psst, I whispered to the concierge in the hotel Baci. Would it be possible to buy more here in Pristina. Of course he said loudly, any of the guys on the street will sell you credits for your Serbian phone.
15. So integration is possible in the Balkans, and basically healthy even if it involves gray market cell phone credits.
16. The problem is that the official efforts at integration are always running behind the unofficial ones.
17. Macedonia in particular has been slow to take advantage of what Europe is offering.
18. There are reasons for this: The big threat in the Balkans today is lack of progress: on the Macedonia name issue, on Bosnia’s constitutional reforms, on Pristina/Belgrade dialogue. That last has begun to move, and I hope it will produce good results.
19. These are long-standing irritants that are being allowed to remain unresolved and are blocking progress towards NATO and the EU. This is a mistake—Brussels and the Balkan capitals need to find a way of moving forward, even if only slowly. Washington should help, but it doesn’t want to play the primary mover role any longer.
20. Macedonia has been a candidate country for EU membership since December 2005. Its progress is at best slow: the progress report in November 2010 has lots of “little progress,” “limited progress,” “modest progress.”
21. It seems to me the way the government covers for this is to be belligerent: towards the EU, the US and Greece.
22. Let me say a final word on the name issue, because it is the main obstacle to more rapid integration of Macedonia into NATO and the EU.
23. I testified years before the US recognized Macedonia by its constitutional name that it should do so, and I got then Senator Joe Biden wagging a finger “no” in my face for my trouble.
24. I am entirely sympathetic to the Macedonian position in substance: a country is entitled to call itself, its people and its language anything it wants. If nothing else, the interim accord, which allows Macedonia to use the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, should apply.
25. I hope they win their case at the International Court of Justice, which might at least get Macedonia into NATO, where it belongs.
26. But I can’t help but suspect that Prime Minister Gruevski uses the name issue for political purposes, not only getting votes but also hiding lack of progress on EU reforms.
27. The EU could be tougher with Macedonia—they give a lot of euros to Skopje every year.
28. The name issue will presumably be settled in court, or not.
29. But is it time to make the money more conditional on EU-required reforms?
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How about the EU getting a little tougher with Greece over their intransigence on the name issue? The Greeks are getting a lot more euros from the Europeans than the Macedonians are. And somebody should make them read the reports on historical population genetics which purport to show that Macedonians differed from Greeks in ancient times, the current population does not consist of Slavicized Greeks?
On progress: Kfor just handed over control of the Kosovo-Macedonian border to Kosovo.
Not everybody sees the Kosovo experiment as a failure, BTW – Sunday evening al-Jazeera had a documentary based on the new Kosovar film “Exit” (with footage of horse-drawn wagons piled high with belongings pulling away from burning houses and lines of weary Kosovars trudging along intercut with shots of busy present-day highways).
Dear Daniel,
as I have been engaged in the regional affairs for the last 30 or so years. Also, I have represented Bosnia, Montenegro and Macedonia at the World Bank Board 2005-2008, so I wanted to share a couple of thoughts. I fully support your conclusion : What happens in Kosovo does not stay in Kosovo and what happens in Bosnia doesn’t stay in Bosnia.
Ethnic partition of Macedonia would be catastrophic for Macedonia. Georgijevski, Gruevski and other leaders should look for a quite harmonious ethnic relations existing further developing in neighboring Montenegro rather than Serbia.
What our wonderful Amb. Bob Frowick and David Foley as an OSCE early birds were proposing ten years afgo as a solution was rejected and they were sent home. But, what is a current outcome is much than Georgijevski got since.
Pushing Greece to soften its stance on the issue of Macedonian name would certainly help a lot in solving overall regional relations.
Kinda agree, but I disagree with:
4. Not necessarily. Macedonia learned a lot about state keeping. Now we have like 10.000 former soldiers with war experience. It will not repeat itself. Kosovo was a secession of Serbian state and we did not dissolve. Macedonia and Kosovo were occupied by Serbia in 1913 and the Kosovo secession was welcomed for the same reasons.
5. calm and pragmatic PM Georgievski? hahahaha
6. Serious claim. He would be jailed for good for this.
8. Largest Albanian city in Macedonia? Shkup? You mean a city with the largest ethnic Albanian population in the world? It’s the Macedonian capital – Skopje (official name in Macedonian known to the world as opposed to the Albanian only toponym). Or you want to call it Uskub maybe? And the nonsense about the museum… No war, don’t worry. Except if the USA want’s it.
17. ?????? We are the best integrated in EU. With the best success in EU accession. EU claims that. Not we. And we’ll soon start the negotiations for full membership!
18. First is moving to. Check http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_21/03/2011_383772 and the status of Macedonian ICJ case against Greece.
19. Macedonia is moving the fastest it can. Some suicidal terms are set by Greece, and we’re not going to accept them. It is time NATO and EU to find a way to discipline Greece. Not us.
20. But we are a candidate. Before all of them. And we are getting the negotiations real soon now (according to EU).
21. Hahahah. Strong words. Describing someone who asks you to change your name to join the club. We do not want the club that asks us to change our name, religion, or whatever…
25. And EU – Interim accord wording is especially strong on EU accession.
26. Then help us get our name out of the question. By pushing strongly everywhere that we should get it back in full.
27. Ridiculous – tougher on changing our name. Beware.
28. Will never be settled – we have no recourse. Greece is mean.
29. The are conditional.
Conclusion – weak reasoning without some facts. Remove your Albanian pink spectacles and try to be more fair and objective towards us. We are not Serbs with 100 war criminals tried in Court. We are not oppressing Greeks, but Macedonians are oppressed by Greek stat (check UN reports). We are the good guys. Don’t ask us to commit ethnic suicide to make you feel better…
Kiro Velkovski
Skopje, Macedonia
P.S. Can you please sign the article by your name?
FYRoM cannot exist as ‘Republic of Macedonia’ on the basis, a NoN-Greek Macedonian nation peopled by South-Slavs has never existed in historical verity…creating one now, would be a travesty to Western worlds long established cultural-historical narrative.
Recognition of FYRoM, ala GW Bush style, just hours into his second term in November 2004, tells us that it was pre-planned and destined to happen from since his last, previous administration.
George was issued poor-quality, academically-flawed substandard advice, he acted on ill-judged, ill thought-out advice, politically-charged advice – expediance that left us a legacy manifested in a name dispute now in the early years of it’s third decade.
Highly paid advisors, advised the President of the United States of America to act on anti-Hellenic, anti-Western advice.
Macedonians contributed greatly towards development of (i) Western Civilizational Principles, (ii) Western worlds cultural-historical narrative, and (iii) Western Civil Societies common understandings of shared common heritage.
Those advisors who argued for establishement of FYRoM as ‘Republic of Macedonia’ lobbied the president from anti-Hellenic perspectives…The Guardian and chief protector of the West was issued politically-motivated advice that was anti-Hellenic at heart and anti-Western by extension.
Blurring the distinction between (i) Macedonia and Paeonia, (ii) Macedonians from Yugoslavs, (iii) Haemus-Hellen from South-Slav, erodes Western Civil Societies common understandings in shared common heritage…the fabric from which the West wove it’s cloth – the glue that binds the West to adhere to common Civilizational Principles.
Erode the Wests cultural-historical narrative. Erode the Wests cultural-historical heritage. Erode the Wests common understandings of shared common heritage – now sit back and watch the Western worlds cultural-foundation crumble.
FYRoM is not Macedonia and the peoples there are Slavic – Do the Math!