Day: March 24, 2011
Mil ops are clear, what about civ ops?
The U.S. military is clear enough about what it is doing in Libya (sorry the slides are not all shown in the video):
It is good Coalition partners are picking up about half the burden. I’m not a mil guy, but I am particularly interested in hearing that they are hitting communications. Experience in Bosnia and Kosovo suggests that is important in shifting the strategic balance. Once Gaddafi’s forces are cut off from his command and control, it is doubtful whether they will continue the fight.
That said, this effort has a civilian dimension as well. Relief supplies are starting to move into rebel-held areas. Hillary Clinton says Gaddafi loyalists are in touch with the State Department:
The most important civilian pieces are the ones we are not likely to see any time soon:
- What is being done to ensure that the Transitional National Council is fully representative of the whole country and ready to take over governance if the opportunity presents itself;
- Intelligence cooperation with the rebels;
- Discussions with Gaddafi-friendly places about offering him refuge;
- Diplomatic efforts to keep the Arab League on side, or at least not too loudly opposed to the intervention;
- Planning for the difficult post-war stabilization and reconstruction phase.
The only diplomatic piece that has been visible the last couple of days is the quarrel over who will command and control the Coalition operation, a role the U.S. wants to pass off. It seems now that will go to NATO. You don’t want to delve into the intricacies of that debate, which involves French, Turkish and NATO scholasticism that would please only medieval monks.
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Syria is getting serious
The protests and violent crackdown in Dara’a, in the southwest corner of Syria near the Jordanian border, appear to have left dozens dead. This is not remarkable in Al-Assad family history. The President’s father, Hafez al Assad, killed tens of thousands in Hama in February 1982 to quell an uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood.
But the current president, Bashar al Assad, claims to be made of more modern stuff. He told the Wall Street Journal in January,
Internally, it is about the administration and the people’s feeling and dignity, about the people participating in the decisions of their country. It is about another important issue. I am not talking here on behalf of the Tunisians or the Egyptians. I am talking on behalf of the Syrians. It is something we always adopt. We have more difficult circumstances than most of the Arab countries but in spite of that Syria is stable. Why? Because you have to be very closely linked to the beliefs of the people. This is the core issue. When there is divergence between your policy and the people’s beliefs and interests, you will have this vacuum that creates disturbance.
Bashar has hit the nail on the head, and it looks as if there might be a gap opening between policy and the people’s beliefs and interests.
How pervasive is this gap? In my month studying Arabic at the University of Damascus a couple of years ago, I found it widespread. Syrians focus their hostility not so much on Bashar himself as on the regime, which they recognize as one in which friends and family get rich while the rest of the country remains poor. They want what Bashar says they should have (also in his Wall Street Journal interview):
Actually, societies during the last three decades, especially since the eighties have become more closed due to an increase in close-mindedness that led to extremism. This current will lead to repercussions of less creativity, less development, and less openness. You cannot reform your society or institution without opening your mind. So the core issue is how to open the mind, the whole society, and this means everybody in society including everyone. I am not talking about the state or average or common people. I am talking about everybody; because when you close your mind as an official you cannot upgrade and vice versa.
Bashar al Assad has talked the talk, but he has not walked the walk. Dara’a is the testing ground, and he is failing the test. Will it spread? Only events can tell, but I won’t be surprised if it does.
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