peacefare.net

Bashar’s challenge

Before I could get this piece up, Bashar had spoken.  He flunked the test.  Syria is in play.  Will its youth stand up to be counted?

The Syrian cabinet has resigned and President Bashar al Assad is scheduled to speak to the nation today. But he was supposed to do it yesterday too, so who knows?

I assume he isn’t fooled by all those pro-government “demonstrators” in the streets yesterday. He has a tall order to fill: convincing his people that this time he is serious about reform. He may never have merited their confidence, but there is something in the Syrians that holds on to the hope that he’ll prove the modernizer he claims to be. If he disappoints once again, it won’t be long before he follows Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi into a battle with his own people that he can only lose. The first skirmishes have already been fought.

For some reason that is difficult to fathom, Washington has also grown attached to the notion that Bashar may be more part of the solution than part of the problem.  John Kerry was quite explicit about this last week at the Carnegie Endowment, and Hillary Clinton has been not far behind. Some even seem to view him as an asset in the effort to make peace with Israel, a hope he (following in his father’s footsteps) has repeatedly dashed.

Perhaps the only thing that could make me think twice about this is an Elliot Abrams op/ed denouncing Bashar in such stentorian terms that you’ve got to wonder whether you’ve joined the wrong team.  The specific measures Abrams proposes amount to denouncing Syria in every available forum and trying to hold Damascus accountable for its crimes.

I can certainly support that, but withdrawing the U.S. Ambassador would be silly.  It accomplished nothing when the Bush Administration did it and would accomplish nothing now, except to deprive the protesters of an important point of reference, one that can help to ensure the regime feels the scrutiny of the international community for its offenses against them.

Helena Cobban suggests a middle ground.  Hoping to avoid Iraq-like chaos in Syria, she hopes the Turks will be persuasive with Bashar and convince him to accommodate legitimate demands of the protesters.  Clear commitments and careful monitoring she thinks could steer a Syria still led by Bashar in the right direction.

I have my doubts, but we’ll find out soon enough.  If Bashar is as bad as Abrams says, he will fall short in his speech by failing to lift the emergency and other laws that support his repressive state, by refusing to open up the political system to competition, and by trying to maintain the monopoly his family and cronies have on corruption.  Syria’s youth will then have its opportunity.  Let’s hope they are as ready for it as the Tunisians and the Egyptians.  And let’s hope they keep it non-violent, because one Libya is already too many for most Americans.