peacefare.net

No joke

The day is done in the Middle East, with no definitive results:

• protests were widespread in Syria, with at least a dozen demonstrators killed
• duelling demonstrations in Yemen came off, I gather peacefully
• Libyan rebels remain on the defensive

Even in Ivory Coast expectations of a definitive end to Gbagbo have not been fulfilled, as fierce fighting is said to continue in Abijian.  Ah well, it is April Fools’ Day, and maybe I’m the fool for having hoped for better outcomes.

Srdja Popovic, the Serb Otpor (Resistance) leader who now participates in a network of people training others for “nonviolent conflict” was here at SAIS today.  His messages as always to those who seek to overthrow dictators and embark on a path to democracy:  unity, planning, nonviolent discipline.

The Syrians are handicapped:  they haven’t had time for serious planning, but so far they’ve been pretty good at maintaining nonviolent discipline and unity.  If Bashar keeps on giving them the gift of failing to offer serious reform, they may be able to catch up with their planning homework, but maintaining momentum won’t be easy.

Yemen has developed into a more unified movement and seems to be maintaining nonviolent discipline.  President Saleh is slippery though and keeps on squirming out of deals that would lead to his stepping down.  The demonstrators are going to have to keep it up for a while longer.

Libya and Ivory Coast are violent situations, not nonviolent ones.  Each in its own way demonstrates why nonviolent discipline is so important.

Violence in Libya gave Gaddafi the advantage, as his forces are far better equipped and trained than the rebels.  A stalemate for weeks while they equipped and trained would be ruinous for Libya and for the coalition supporting UN Security Council resolution 1973. It is important to get Gaddafi and his family out of the country as soon as possible.

In Ivory Coast, president-elect Ouattara showed enormous discipline in resisting a military solution.  Now that he has embarked on one, he has the international community–even the African Union–on his side.  He needs to keep the military action clean and avoid revenge killings, which would set his administration off on the wrong foot and deprive him of vital international support.  He also needs to win quickly, before more innocent people are killed.

Good behavior and laughter make better revolution

As incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo is being forced out of power by election winner Alassane Ouattara in the Ivory Coast, it is time to remind all concerned that proper behavior of security forces is required of good guys as well as bad guys. This is not only a matter of international humanitarian law but also of good policy. If you are claiming power in the name of democracy or freedom and intending to establish the rule of law, the last thing in the world you should want is for your security forces to begin behaving even remotely like the ones they have just defeated.

This will be important also in Libya, where revenge killings–in particular of Gaddafi “mercenaries” thought to be of non-Libyan origin–have already occurred. The International Criminal Court should not limit its investigation only to the Gaddafi loyalists but should also keep its eye on those generally called “the rebels,” even if actual prosecutions for war crimes may prove technically difficult because the rebel forces are not an organized armed force, or at least don’t appear to be yet.

I am hoping that this problem will not arise in Yemen or in Syria, where the protesters have tried hard to maintain nonviolent discipline. The prerequisite for doing so is to mass large numbers of people, something the regimes will try to prevent by instilling, or re-instilling, fear. It may seem odd, but the winners in nonviolent confrontations are often those who can laugh best at their opponent, a clear metric for the removal of fear.

I’d be the first to admit that Gbagbo and Gaddafi scare me, and it is hard to fault those on the spot who decided to take up arms rather than rely on laughter and massive nonviolent protests. But if they want the rest of the world to help them, they’ve got to keep it clean.

PS: Rival demonstrations in Sanaa today appear to have been relatively peaceful, so far.  Saleh is clever, but will it buy him until the end of the year?  Sporadic but persistent Twitter reports from Syria suggest the regime is using violence and the threat of violence to prevent demonstrations.

PPS:  In Ivory Coast, the outcome is still not quite final, but Outtara is sounding the right notes: