No joke
The day is done in the Middle East, with no definitive results:
- protests were widespread in Syria, with at least a dozen demonstrators killed
- duelling demonstrations in Yemen came off, I gather peacefully
- Libyan rebels remain on the defensive
Even in Ivory Coast expectations of a definitive end to Gbagbo have not been fulfilled, as fierce fighting is said to continue in Abijian. Ah well, it is April Fools’ Day, and maybe I’m the fool for having hoped for better outcomes.
Srdja Popovic, the Serb Otpor (Resistance) leader who now participates in a network of people training others for “nonviolent conflict” was here at SAIS today. His messages as always to those who seek to overthrow dictators and embark on a path to democracy: unity, planning, nonviolent discipline.
The Syrians are handicapped: they haven’t had time for serious planning, but so far they’ve been pretty good at maintaining nonviolent discipline and unity. If Bashar keeps on giving them the gift of failing to offer serious reform, they may be able to catch up with their planning homework, but maintaining momentum won’t be easy.
Yemen has developed into a more unified movement and seems to be maintaining nonviolent discipline. President Saleh is slippery though and keeps on squirming out of deals that would lead to his stepping down. The demonstrators are going to have to keep it up for a while longer.
Libya and Ivory Coast are violent situations, not nonviolent ones. Each in its own way demonstrates why nonviolent discipline is so important.
Violence in Libya gave Gaddafi the advantage, as his forces are far better equipped and trained than the rebels. A stalemate for weeks while they equipped and trained would be ruinous for Libya and for the coalition supporting UN Security Council resolution 1973. It is important to get Gaddafi and his family out of the country as soon as possible.
In Ivory Coast, president-elect Ouattara showed enormous discipline in resisting a military solution. Now that he has embarked on one, he has the international community–even the African Union–on his side. He needs to keep the military action clean and avoid revenge killings, which would set his administration off on the wrong foot and deprive him of vital international support. He also needs to win quickly, before more innocent people are killed.
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