If only we had 10 plagues to send
It’s the second night of Passover and Bashar al Assad is still not letting his people go. The notion that he can get away with abolishing the emergency law from the books but continuing to shoot demonstrators illustrates how thoroughly imbued with authoritarianism this supposed paragon of reform really is. As I said yesterday, Syrians can accept it or they can press on for something better.
What they should not do is look to the international community for much help. There is no military option in Syria. The Americans have supposedly been providing assistance to an anti-regime broadcaster operating from London, and in due course it will no doubt come out that someone or other (most likely American or Serbian, maybe Tunisian or Egyptian) has provided training to the protesters in what is properly termed these days “nonviolent conflict.” I have no doubt my own image, which appears repeatedly in the film Bringing Down A Dictator (about the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia) is familiar to both the Syrian police and demonstrators. But none of the above amounts to any substantial assistance.
The Iranians are accusing the Saudis and Jordanians of pumping up the demonstrations. That seems unlikely, to say the least. Amman has its own problems. Riyadh’s preference for stability seems to extend to Bashar al Assad, despite the Saudi rivalry with Damascus for influence in Lebanon and Syria’s alignment with Tehran. The Syrian protesters are mainly on their own, as much as the Tunisians and maybe more than the Egyptians before them.
The lack of substantial foreign support should not discourage. The protesters are better off being genuinely and profoundly Syrian. What they lack is mass, which comes from inside the country. It is mass that protects the protesters and strains the regime. If the demonstrations are going to succeed, the protesters are going to have to convince many more Syrians to join them in the streets and to stay there for an extended period. This will require extraordinary nonviolent discipline, organizational acumen, and good humor.
Unfortunately, there is no modern equivalent of the ten Biblical plagues. I would gladly call them down on Bashar, whose cynical reform/violence trick should not succeed on the merits. But life isn’t fair, and Syrians will have to make their own good fortune.
Second Seder tonight, and you can be sure I’ll be putting in a good word for them.
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