Syrians need even more courage

AJ English is doing what it can to cover events in Syria from nonprofessional footage, as journalists have been kept out:

Brian Whitaker, whose al-bab.com is one of the best blogs covering the Arab world, is being widely cited today for saying about Syria:

For the regime, the only tool left now is repression, and in the long run that will seal its fate. The question is how long.

Of course in the long run we are all dead, but I wish I shared his confidence that repression will not succeed. One need only recall popular rebellions that did not succeed in Burma, Thailand, Belarus, Venezuela and elsewhere to be reminded that autocratic regimes sometimes do manage to repress their opponents. The outcome in Syria is not yet obvious to me, much as I might wish Whitaker correct.

As President Obama has suggested, Bashar al Assad is being egged on and assisted by Tehran, which will regard the Syrian repression as a quid pro quo for Saudi intervention in Bahrain. This is cynical and ugly, but sometimes cynical and ugly succeeds.  As Babak Rahimi says in a piece for the Jamestown Foundation yesterday:

If successful in its reaction to the events in Syria, Tehran will be able to reinforce its national interests and expand its reach in the region. If Syria is unsuccessful in subduing its revolt and goes the route of Egypt, then Iran will lose a major strategic ally and access to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could have a major impact on Iran’s position in the Middle East.

If Babak is correct, and I think he is, it is puzzling that the Americans have waited so long to express their displeasure with the repression in Syria.

Of course it may well be that the demonstrators are better off without overt American assistance, which the regime would no doubt use to tar them as foreign stooges.  But that label for the moment seems more appropriate for Bashar al Assad, who is clearly getting Iranian encouragement and support.

The Syrian demonstrations yesterday were widespread, but not overwhelming in numbers, and the regime showed little hesitation in mowing down its opponents, killing upwards of 75.  That however is a smallish number in the history of repression in Syria.  Bashar is trying desperately to prevent Damascus from erupting.  It is not pre-ordained that he will fail–a lot of people in Damascus owe their jobs to the regime, which has husbanded the spoils less greedily than Gaddafi in Libya.

Syrians still need to decide how much they want change, and how much change they want.  No one should presume to tell its citizens that they have to risk their lives.  That is for them to decide, I hope in numbers so large that the outcome Whitaker predicts will come sooner rather than later.

PS: Courage does not appear to be lacking. This crowd chanting “the people want to topple the regime” is in Zabadani, near the Lebanese border, tonight: