Peace, justice or both?
President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen has reportedly accepted a Gulf Cooperation Council proposal that he step down within 30 days and turn over power to his vice president, in return for immunity from prosecution. While the opposition political parties seem inclined to accept, the protesters in the streets do not.
This is a classic peace or justice choice for the protesters. I’d be the last to suggest which way they ought to go. But it is not wrong to suggest that they consider carefully the question of maintaining unity. Saleh is wily. If he can split the opposition and the protesters, he may well still be around 30 days from now, bemoaning the lack of alternative to his continuing rule. He is already on BBC claiming that the protests are a “coup.” He sounds far from resigned to his fate. The worst outcome would be neither peace nor justice.
Is there any possibility of the best: peace and justice? I imagine so, but strategic patience and unity will be required to get there. If either one is lacking, it might be better to accept half a loaf.
Can half a loaf be satisfactory? It really depends on the circumstances. In Egypt, the protesters relied on an army that had been in many respects the mainstay of the Mubarak regime to guide the transition. Yet Mubarak is under arrest and being questioned, because the demonstrators maintained the pressure (and Mubarak did not negotiate immunity). Where Egypt will end up is still anyone’s guess, but at least restoration of the old regime looks impossible.
Yemen is in many ways a much more broken country than Egypt. It is running out of both oil and water even as it faces rebellions north and south as well as a desperately poor population addicted to qat. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is finding it a relatively welcome refuge, despite the American military campaign against it. There is certainly an argument for a transition that maintains whatever integrity the state may still possess.
But there is no reason for people who have put their lives on the line in the streets to go home thoroughly dissatisfied. The choice is theirs, provided they can maintain the unity and massive presence that have brought the situation to its present juncture.
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