Overdue

Two things are overdue:  a forceful international community reaction to the violent repression in Syria, and an agreement for President Saleh of Yemen to leave power.

The Syrian situation is getting downright ugly, with the regime claiming it is fighting terrorists.  Tanks, machine guns and random sniper killings were the weapons of choice yesterday in Deraa, the epicenter of the protests so far.  We can expect similar action to be taken elsewhere, if the regime has the military resources to deploy.  Lots of protesters have been rounded up for interrogation.  The pattern book here is Gaddafi’s, with echoes of Saddam Hussein:  random violence to reinstate fear, which then keeps most people in line.

The State Department has urged all Americans to leave Syria.  This may seem pro forma and irrelevant, but it isn’t:  we saw in Libya how Washington hesitates to take vigorous action until U.S. citizens and embassy staff are safe.  So far as I know, essential embassy staff are remaining in Damascus.  The U.S. citizens in Syria will include not only tourists and Syrian Americans, but notably also Defense Department scholarship students studying Arabic at Damascus University.

The key to success for the protesters in Syria is their relationship with the security forces.  The large army is mostly conscripts with short tours of duty.  If they can get the security forces to hesitate in using violence, there is real hope of success.  This will require a level of mass mobilization and nonviolent discipline that will be difficult to achieve.  Protesters in small numbers are easy prey to regime violence, and attacks against the security forces will only bring massive violence in reprisal.

Washington is said to be working on “targeted” sanctions against individuals in the Syrian regime responsible for ordering the attacks on demonstrators.  There are also signs of a condemnatory UN Security Council resolution in the works.  Both are good ideas, even if late in the game.  An International Criminal Court threat of indictment against the regime leadership seems to me less than credible, since Bashar al Assad will certainly not allow investigators into the country.  More useful would be frank talk from Turkey, which has improved its relations with Syria of late and wants to play a peacemaker role in the Middle East.

The real game though is Iran, which now appears to be encouraging and assisting the crackdown in Syria.  The day Tehran becomes convinced that the crackdown is counterproductive is the day it will end.  We may have to wait for a long time for that day, or the day Bashar agrees to step aside, so the protesters need to get ready for a long and difficult haul.

In Yemen, the now negotiated agreement appears to provide for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down within 30 days, turning power over to a handpicked vice president while the president’s family members remain in their jobs, in exchange for immunity from prosecution for the president and his family.  The most detail I’ve seen includes this:

The two-page draft deal, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, doesn’t mention defense or counterterrorism issues. People familiar with the document say the U.S. and Gulf Arabs expect that Mr. Saleh’s son and nephews—who run the country’s intelligence service, Republican Guard and elite Interior Ministry forces and are key counterterrorism liaisons for American officials—would remain in their positions until new elections….

According to the proposed plan, a vice president chosen by Mr. Saleh would take over after the 30-day period, running the country along with a parliament in which 50% of seats are controlled by the ruling party, 40% are controlled by the opposition, and the rest are reserved for undefined “others.”

This is the smooth transition the U.S. seeks to protect its interests in maintaining the counterterrorism campaign against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.  It sounds to me as if it more than adequately protects Saleh.

The protesters are now said to have agreed with the plan, which the political party opposition negotiated.  The remaining question is when it will be announced officially, setting the 30-day clock in motion.  That will require a push from the international community–Saleh won’t jump on his own.  If this is the plan everyone accepts, best to get on with it.