Why no partition of Kosovo?
Tanjug, Belgrade’s government press agency, asked me this morning to comment on the possibility of dividing Kosovo. The reason for this question was a statement of Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Ivica Dacic to media in Kosovo yesterday. Tanjug quoted him as saying that would be the only realistic and quick solution for both Serbia and Kosovo.
This was my reply:
There are two practical problems with the idea of dividing Kosovo: 1) if Serbia gets the North, Kosovo will want the Albanian-majority Presevo area of southern Serbia, which Serbia will not give up; 2) Belgrade and Pristina would have to find a way of guaranteeing that partition of Kosovo would not lead to partition of Bosnia or Macedonia. I don’t see how they would be able to give those guarantees.
As a matter of reciprocity, you can expect Pristina to ask for Albanians anything Belgrade gets for Serbs—Belgrade should be moderating its requests with this in mind. It is also important to note that there are few important Serb religious sites in the North—most of the important churches and monasteries would in any event remain south of the Ibar, along with most of the Serb population.
The international community has demonstrated repeatedly that it does not want to move boundaries to accommodate ethnic differences, even though it has been willing to change the status of various boundaries (from internal boundaries to international borders). This is at least in part because all the Balkans countries are expected to end up eventually in the European Union, where borders will disappear. Belgrade has the real possibility of entering the European Union well before Kosovo, but only if it gives up any claims to its neighbor’s territory.
An added thought for readers of this blog: why did I not appeal to the principle of multiethnicity? The short answer is that I don’t really think there is much multiethnicity to be had in Kosovo today. The Serb population is now likely under 10 per cent, even counting those who live north of the Ibar, and many of those are old and living in enclaves. It is my hope that a Kosovo that remains whole will welcome Serbs back in the future, whether as visitors to the many Serb monuments and religious sites or as residents. But it would be disingenuous to suggest that today Kosovo is truly a multiethnic society that must be preserved at all costs. Let’s hope it becomes one, something far more likely to happen if it is not divided.
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8 thoughts on “Why no partition of Kosovo?”
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Some of the Serbian papers are quoting Serbian commentators who are also shooting down this idea, which various members of the Serbian government keep trying to sneak into the conversation. Supposedly, partition is impossible because it would be “unconsitutional” – at least they don’t use Jeremic’s “enshrined in our Constitution” when referring to this document written by one of the politicians suspected of complicity in Djindjic’s assassination and in any case passed (barely) – even without Albanian participation – during the Ahtisaari negotiations to prevent any weakening by Serbian representatives on “territorial integrity.” And in any case, the majority of Serbians still in Kosovo live outside the north, meaning they would – from the Serbian point of view – be abandoned, along with the monasteries in the south. (At least some of which may well have been built on the foundations of Albanian structures – after all, the region was Christianized long before the barbarian Slavs arrived.)
After Kosovo was handed over to Serbia by the Great Powers a hundred years ago, the government made a big push to colonize the area. Now Serbia has lost it again, to the people who never went anywhere, or who kept coming back, and their only hope is keeping tensions so high somebody will force those people to accept Serbian demands. The politicians are desperate for some concession they can take to the voters and say they got something in negotiations – over and above what Ahtisaari gave them, that is.
They may have had a shock recently, though, when the European representative in charge of the accession process in the Western Balkans told them that the EU expects not only that they start negotiations with Prishtina, but that the negotiations lead to satisfactory agreements. So far, the only progress seems to have been on cadastral documents, where Kosovo agreed to accept copies of the records removed from Kosovo during the war. (I hope, as a temporary measure, until Serbia recognizes Kosovo or some such formulation, but who knows.)
Dacic says partition is the only quick solution. That sounds like a negotiating trick – why should the international community be pushed into acting according to Serbia’s electoral deadlines? Maybe at one time it seemed as though Tadic was a vast improvement on the other possibilities, but if a majority of Serbs are willing to give up the EU just to keep the myth of Serbian’s ownership of Kosovo alive, maybe they should be allowed to make that choice. Or forced to.
There’s no hurry. Most of what has to happen in Kosovo doesn’t depend on its relations with Serbia, anyway. Good government, infrastructure, education – Serbian name-calling can’t prevent them from acquiring these. Taiwan has flourished without China’s recognition, Kosovo doesn’t require Serbian approval to do the same. The difference is that waiting for demography to solve the problem would seem to be a viable approach here – Serbia has an old and shrinking population, even outside of Kosovo, while Kosovo’s is young and either holding steady or growing a little. By joining with Albania (not politically, but economically) they will gain access to a more realistically-sized market, plus they’ll have access to the sea (for exporting the metals from Trepca). Kosovo’s future is bright, there’s no reason for them to be pushed into going along with Serbian wishes according to a Serbian schedule.
It still amazes that after the partition of Kosovo from Serbia, some who favored that still pretend partition of the north would be a precedent-setting mistake. The arguments cited here for not considering separating the north from the part of Kosovo ruled by Pristina remain the same and as hollow as ever. There are various reasons for considering separation as part of a Kosovo solution:
Separation of the north from Pristina need not mean partition. A formula such as “Ahtisaari Plus” could be found for bringing the status quo in the north under an international umbrella. This already exists in the form of UNSCR 1244 and UNMIK but the Quint has refused to work with the UN on the north.
Simply because the Albanians threaten instability in Presevo if the northern Kosovo Serbs are not forced under Pristina does not mean the international community must pander to them to prevent it. This would be giving in to blackmail and threats of terrorism.
The partition of Kosovo, pretty much along ethnic lines (re the lack of multi-ethnicity noted above), already sets a precedent for elsewhere in the Balkans. And nothing has happened except for the games being played out in BiH under the watch of the EU. Events in BiH will unfold along their own internal dynamics and depending on how much centralization the internationals try to force there too.
Threats of instability in Macedonia because of a “partition” of Kosovo would also be a form of terrorism.
An “autonomous province”? Or one with “more than autonomy, less than return to Serbia”? And what’s to say you don’t end up with the same kind of on-going problem we keep seeing in RS, with the local Serb leader constantly pushing the boundaries, with Serbian support, against an international presence that is only interested in preventing an embarrassing turn to open violence? If Serbian politicians are pushing for a “quick solution” – and being supported for it among the public – it means Serbs are getting tired of the mess, which would seem to mean it’s no time to be forcing concessions on the other side. Maybe it’s time for the Serbians to face a simple truth – they lost a war over territory, which means they lost the territory. They should be used to the idea by now that Milosevic lied about a lot of things, including when he told them they had stood up to Nato and won.
In any case, why shouldn’t the Albanians in South Serbia be allowed to join Kosovo if the Serbs in the North are allowed to secede from Kosovo in some way? Saying that the Albanians will want something doesn’t necessarily mean they’re threatening violence to get it. There is a fairness argument to be made. (And it’s Dacic who is warning that if there isn’t a solution soon the government will consider military action, although that’s surely bluster.) In any case, the Albanians in southern Serbia can cause problems without violence – look at the what they are doing to Serbia’s prized visa-free status in the Schengen zone simply by claiming asylum in rich European countries. Albanians from Albania don’t seem to be doing the same, and conditions in Albania likely aren’t that much better than in Serbia – apparently they view Albania as their own country, and the Albanians in Serbia don’t. Offering the Albanians in Southern Serbia the same deal that is offered to the Serbs in Kosovo sounds fair to this outsider.
Whatever the decision, there’s no reason for the internationals to be pushed by one side or the other into supporting a hasty solution. The EU negotiators were far too eager to get an agreement out of Dodik in order to be able to show that the EU is capable of acting on its own, without pressure from the side (as Lajcak put it – I wonder who he had in mind??) and may only have made things worse. Without the constant hovering of the internationals, maybe the peoples in the region can come to some messy but workable solution, even if that only means that large parts of the population move out of the area in disgust.
Serbia’s legal status as an independent state is not in question. The open questions are the ones created by Milosevic and the poor handling by the Europeans of the initial break-up of Yugoslavia. These include BiH and Kosovo, not southern Serbia. Re Kosovo, one side wants to opt out of Serbia and has done so, the other chooses to stay in Serbia. It would seem fair to accommodate both sides insofar as possible. A separation along the Ibar seems doable.
I agree the internationals should not be pushed by either side. Best would be to allow the various sides to reach mutual accommodations without the use or threat of force.
“why shouldn’t the Albanians in South Serbia be allowed to join Kosovo if the Serbs in the North are allowed to secede from Kosovo in some way?”
On the contrary Amer, shouldnt the question be: Why shouldn’t the Serbs in North Kosovo be allowed to join Serbia if the Albanians in the rest of Kosovo are allowed to secede from Serbia?
Especially , as the Northern Kosovo Serb “separists”- as you no doubt see them through your warped Greater Albania spectacles – live adjacent to Serbia proper. As Gerry says, a separation along the river would be more than doable – hell, what more natural boundary is there than a river?
Also Amer, when you say “the Albanians in southern Serbia can cause problems without violence – look at the what they are doing to Serbia’s prized visa-free status in the Schengen zone simply by claiming asylum in rich European countries,” it’s hardly something to boast about.
Indeed, it just gives further credence to the view that the EU/international community’s sole motivation for creating the “state of Kosovo” is to pen all the undesirable drug-dealing, human-trafficking elements into one cosy little hole, at arm’s length, forever giving them hollow promises of EU integration, while effectively permanently isolating them. I mean, do you for a minute think that given the reputation of Albanians in western European countries, that the public in those countries’ will ever happily welcome the prospect of Albanians, let alone Kosovo Albanians, freely wandering the streets of London and Paris? Oh, and before you accuse me of strereotyping all Albanians as criminals, don’t bother. I’m half-Serb myself, so I know all about stereotyping.
GM: “why shouldn’t the Albanians in South Serbia be allowed to join Kosovo if the Serbs in the North are allowed to secede from Kosovo in some way?”
On the contrary Amer, shouldnt the question be: Why shouldn’t the Serbs in North Kosovo be allowed to join Serbia if the Albanians in the rest of Kosovo are allowed to secede from Serbia?
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A: The only reason the Albanians were allowed to secede is because of their treatment under Milosevic’s rule (starting with withdrawal of autonomy through the brutal treatment of peaceful protesters up to attempts to drive them from the territory). As we all learned during the ICJ proceedings, a people’s simply asking for autonomy is not a sufficient reason for them to be granted it, if the government respects their human rights.
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GM: Especially , as the Northern Kosovo Serb “separists”- as you no doubt see them through your warped Greater Albania spectacles – live adjacent to Serbia proper. As Gerry says, a separation along the river would be more than doable – hell, what more natural boundary is there than a river?
Also Amer, when you say “the Albanians in southern Serbia can cause problems without violence – look at the what they are doing to Serbia’s prized visa-free status in the Schengen zone simply by claiming asylum in rich European countries,” it’s hardly something to boast about.
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A: It’s not boasting, and I doubt that it’s a conscious strategy – simply a natural consequence of what they see as unfair treatment in what the government tells them is their own country.
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GM: Indeed, it just gives further credence to the view that the EU/international community’s sole motivation for creating the “state of Kosovo” is to pen all the undesirable drug-dealing, human-trafficking elements into one cosy little hole, at arm’s length, forever giving them hollow promises of EU integration, while effectively permanently isolating them. I mean, do you for a minute think that given the reputation of Albanians in western European countries, that the public in those countries’ will ever happily welcome the prospect of Albanians, let alone Kosovo Albanians, freely wandering the streets of London and Paris? Oh, and before you accuse me of strereotyping all Albanians as criminals, don’t bother. I’m half-Serb myself, so I know all about stereotyping.
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A: You’re right, Serbs do seem to know a lot about stereotyping.
To answer 1:
Two wrongs don’t make a right. If Milosevic were still in power your argument might have some foundation. But, he’s not. Nor has he been since 2000. Serbia has been a democracy for over a decade now, and has, by and large, done everything the international community has asked of it. Moreover, by the same token, why haven’t the Kurds or Tamils been given an independent state? I think you’ll agree they suffered just as much, if not more, than the Kosovo Albanians. And, by the way, the Albanians already have a country: it’s called ALBANIA.
To answer 2:
“to what the government tells them is their own country.”
First: so suddenly the Valley Albanians are listening to what Belgrade tells them? Like hell.
Second: as the UNHCR states: “Most of these asylum seekers are ethnic Albanians from the Kosovo region in Serbia.” http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/type,COUNTRYPOS,UNHCR,MNE,3ae6b31b9b,0.html
Now, correct me if Im wrong, but presumably the majority of THESE people, these “Albanians from the Kosovo region in Serbia,” see their government as being in Pristina. Or have they suddenly fallen back in love with Serbia?
To answer 3: Sad though it is, the majority of the world’s population isnt very bright and is easily swayed; hence the power of stereotypes. So, while your average Serb is always seen as a war criminal, your average Albanian is seen as a drug-dealing pimp.I’m afraid these things will matter when it comes to referenda on further Euro integration
The reason the Serbs want partition is the Trebca mine. It could be worth a lot of money(in several billions). So that is one more reason it can not be partitioned. We know the value of the money as well.