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The EU prepares for a worthy new member

This evening I got a note from HINA, the Croatian press agency, declaring me “the best US expert for the Balkan,” so it was hard to resist responding quickly to their request for a comment on the completion of Croatia’s negotiations for membership in the EU. This is what I said:

This is a great moment for Croatia and for the region.  It demonstrates that the promise of European Union membership can become a reality, provided the Balkan states make a concerted effort, as Croatia has done, to meet the tough EU requirements.  Washington will be delighted that Croatia is finding its proper home in Europe and will want to use this achievement to encourage others to make the same kind of effort.  My congratulations both the Croatian officials directly involved and to the people of Croatia, for whom this is a historic moment!

There is however a bit more to say.

Things get harder as you move south through the Balkans. Bosnia cannot become an EU member with its current constitution, which creates a dysfunctional set of governments, especially at the Sarajevo level (where by the way I am headed tomorrow). Serbia, while constitutionally better equipped, is slowing its progress towards the EU by continuing to harbor one last indicted war criminal and dragging its feet in talks with Kosovo intended to solve a few of the practical problems remaining between the antagonists. Serbia will also have to establish “good neighborly relations” with Kosovo before it can join the EU. Kosovo, which has only been independent for three years, lags substantially behind Serbia, while Macedonia is stalled by a dispute with Greece over its name, which Athens claims as its own. Montenegro, bless its small but exceptional heart, is moving rather more expeditiously than the rest.

So the Balkans are in no danger of becoming entirely European before your next vacation. If you want to visit the funkier version, I’d say you still have at least a decade, especially in the more southern reaches (though you’ll already be able to use euros in Kosovo and a euro-pegged “convertible mark” in Bosnia).

I hasten to add that even America’s best Balkan expert would not have predicted Croatia on the threshold of joining the EU as early as 2011. It still has a way to go–27 member states will have to ratify Zagreb’s accession treaty. There can be accidents and delays along the way, especially in this era of euro-skepticism and enlargement fatigue. But never mind, for today the Croatians are correct to celebrate, and my hat is off to them!