Too clever by half

As I have been attending a conference in Sarajevo for the past two days, it is more than time that I write about Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country that is physically and economically recovering from war but still bears deep psychological and political scars.

The good news is not hard to find:  the old market of Baščaršija, the rebuilt Europe hotel, the shiny facade of the reconstructed parliament building, the public parks where cemeteries used to be–wherever you look there are signs of recovery in this beautiful city, surrounded by mountains and dotted with minarets (and more sparsely with churches).  There are still a few buildings showing the scars of war, but I can now jog down the tree-shaded walks along Miljacka river through what used to be the confrontation zone into Grbavica, the close-in neighborhood from which snipers attacked civilians walking in the main drag (“sniper’s alley”) from 1992 to 1995.

The population is more Muslim than before the war.  The Croat neighborhood of Stup near the airport never recovered.  The Catholic cathedral and the Serb churches are preserved and restored, but there are fewer Catholics and Serbs to attend them.  A few habit-wearing nuns cross paths in the street with women wearing the hijab.  Eighty per cent of the Muslims are believed to imbibe alcohol, according to one of the owners of a local brewery.  The signs for Sarajevska pivo hang next to mosques, but one shopping center refuses to allow alcohol to be served on the premises.  The call to prayer is audible during the day, but I think they must be suppressing it at night, as I am not awakened.  Sarajevo is still a melange, but with more Islamic content than before the war.

That is not the way the story is told in Banja Luka, the capital of the Serb 49% of the territory of Bosnia.  There the President does his best to stoke fears of Muslim revanchism.  The Muslims unquestionably have a lot to seek revenge for, but so too do Croats and Serbs.  Everyone suffered during the war, albeit not equally, as demonstrated in the extraordinary work of the Scholars’ Initiative. The politics of Bosnia is largely built on that suffering, with leaders of each ethnic group rallying its minions with promises to protect them from the depredations of the others.

A significant number of people in Sarajevo will tell you that things were better during wartime, because relations among people were better.  This may seem surprising, but Chris Hedges long ago noted that “war is a force that gives us meaning.” Broader purpose is now lacking–people have lots of things to live for, but little to die for.  One Bosnian wag, seeing the post-war flag designed by the international community for Bosnia because the Bosnians couldn’t agree on one, noted that at least no one would die for it (or be motivated to do so).  Sarajevans–Muslims, Serbs and Croats–found meaning in the siege of their city that is lacking today.

There is still a multiethnic strand to Bosnian politics, for the moment led mainly by the Social Democratic party (SDP) of Zlatko Lagumdžija, who did well in elections eight months ago but has been unable to form a government, due to resistance from Croat and Serb ethnic nationalist parties who did well enough to block formation of an effective majority in parliament.  With difficulty, the SDP has managed to lead formation of a government in the Croat/Muslim 51% of Bosnia (known as the Federation), but the real bargaining over a national (the Bosnians call it the “state,” because “national” refers to what we call ethnicities) government has not even begun.  Eight months is a long time to rely on a caretaker government, and the situation may last until towards the end of 2011, when the lack of a state budget would presumably force some kind of action.

In the meanwhile, the President of Republika Srpska (that’s the 49%) is doing everything he can to demonstrate that his “entity” functions and the “state” government does not.  In a maneuver that shamed the European Union, he managed to get Lady Ashton–the Union’s foreign secretary–to visit him in Banja Luka last month and agree to a discussion of the state justice system, about which he has complaints.  Rather than telling him to take his complaints to Sarajevo, the Brussels bureaucrats set up a “structured dialogue” without consulting the state government, and only due to pressure from the Americans and others were representatives of its justice system present for the opening session of the talks.

This is part of a more general strategy:  Milorad Dodik, the president of RS, is trying to put in place all the prerequisites for independence, without actually triggering the move until the time is ripe (the approach is analogous to a successful effort on the part of Montenegro).  Accordingly, he will try to get Brussels to negotiate application of the acquis communitaire, the 80,000 pages of EU rules and regulations that members need to follow, directly with the RS.  It is unclear whether the Eurocrats will fall victim to this ploy.

It is a clever maneuver whose ultimate result would be too clever by half.  If Bosnia is ever partitioned, as Dodik would no doubt like, it will not be in two pieces but in three (the Croats will want their share) and it is unlikely to be peaceful.  The bottom line would be a non-viable Islamic republic in central Bosnia that would necessarily look to either Tehran or Riyadh for support.  If I were Serbian or Croatian, I wouldn’t want that on my border.

In the meanwhile, Dodik and his RS are resisting even communicating with Sarajevo.  They are not present at the conference I am attending, despite many invitations and a good deal of sincere cajoling.  Coming would be inconsistent with their objective of maximizing autonomy in preparation for independence.  And why should they come to the Americans when the EU is willing to come to them? Better to have a dialogue with the EU in Banja Luka rather than one with Americans in Sarajevo.

Phil Gordon, the State Department assistant secretary for Europe, spoke to the conference yesterday.  He was good:  clear signals in favor of Bosnian government formation and reform, with a view to creating a more functional government and gaining candidacy for membership in the EU.  But his appeal was explicitly to politicians who want the best for the country as a whole.  That is definitely not what Dodik is looking for.  He is looking to protect Serbs on territory that they govern separately from the rest of Bosnia.  State Department is going to need to find a better way of convincing him to move in the right direction.  The road to Sarajevo still winds through Belgrade.