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Zbogom Balkan

My discussion last night with stalwarts of the Foreign Policy Initiative in Sarajevo suggested one important elaboration on yesterday’s post–an implicit assumption that I should have made explicit.  In addition, I’d like to discuss one or two additional options.

The assumption is this:  my implicit goal is preservation of a single Bosnia governed democratically and consistent with the rule of law, with authority devolved to appropriate levels.  Regular readers will understand that I have no interest in partitioning Bosnia or in making it a “unitary” state, i.e. one governed exclusively by a strong central government in Sarajevo.  The options I outlined yesterday were aimed at that goal.

The additional option, perhaps more realistic than any I discussed yesterday, is a new deal, that is a bargain between President Milorad Dodik of Republika Srpska (RS) and Zlatko Lagumdžija, who heads the Social Democratic Party that gained the largest number of votes in the last election.  This is an odd couple, as Dodik has taken on a strong Serb nationalist tinge while Lagumdžija lays claim to being the secular champion of  multiethnic Bosnia.  They are the leading political forces in their respective strongholds.  Why can’t they reach a deal?

Maybe they can, but only time and concerted  pressure will make it happen.  The RS is running out of money and concocting bizarre Chinese and Russian loans to fill the gap.  The Federation (the Croat/Muslim entity that occupies 51% of Bosnia and Herzegovina) is also in fiscal trouble, but a newly formed government there claims to be cutting back.  Lagumdžija insists on a government for Bosnia and Herzegovina as a whole that aims seriously for NATO and EU membership, which means a government with the authority to carry out the relevant responsibilities.  Dodik resists.  Some think an American as the High Representative in Bosnia (a position so far always held by a European) could help resolve this and other problems, which adds an option to the ones I outlined yesterday.

Dodik in particular will resist NATO membership, which I should also have mentioned as an option yesterday.  It is generally believed in Bosnia, with good reason I think, that entrance into NATO will end any discussion of partition or other changes to Bosnia’s borders.  Dodik of course understands this perfectly well and has pressed a maximalist position on RS’s claims to the defense property of the Bosnian state, thinking other political forces in the country will give in because resolution of the claims is a condition for Bosnia to begin the NATO membership process.  The maximalist defense property claims would also help to stoke, though not fill, RS’s treasury.

The political stalemate in Bosnia, which has already lasted eight months, can go on a while longer.  It is leaving my Foreign Policy Initiative audience, which was multiethnic but secularist, extremely frustrated, some even verbally ready to go for the war option (and others declaring that they’ll get out quickly if war returns).  I’ve found the Islamist Bosniaks (Muslims) far less irritated.  They believe time is on their side and that in due course Serbia and RS will give up on their partitionist intentions.  While some rail against Dodik, they don’t really think a solution is near.

I hope they are wrong.  My own impatience is born of the feeling that this is a dangerous neighborhood in which to allow issues to fester.  Not to mention that there are a lot of other things to do in the world besides worry about Bosnia’s decades-old post-Communist conflicts.

I’ll be traveling tomorrow and likely not posting.  Sunday I’ll try to turn my attention to the Arab spring, which is lingering far too long, and to Afghanistan, which threatens never to go away.  Then later next week I’ll have a multi-part (and multi-day) post on the prospects for democracy in Iraq, where at least something has changed over the past eight years.

The Balkans notoriously produces more history than it can consume, and less future than it needs.  This two-week interlude has been great, but it is time to bid Zbogom Balkan and turn to America’s higher priority issues.