Day: July 9, 2011
Congratulations! What now?
Independence happened at midnight. Statehood and sovereignty will take decades more.
For South Sudan this is as much opportunity as it is challenge. Sudan was not working for the South, which is fortunate indeed to have an opportunity now to make its own future. The development challenges are obvious: Africa’s newest country is also one of its poorest and most illiterate. Oil, which it has in abundance, is not necessarily a cure–more resource-rich countries fail at serious development than succeed.
But in addition to its development problems, South Sudan faces serious challenges to its statehood and sovereignty:
- Abyei: Ethiopian peacekeepers will be arriving, but twice the North has failed to observe the outcome of arbitrations. There is still a long way to go before the border is agreed and demarcated.
- South Kordofan and Blue Nile: The agreement on these two Northern areas where Southern sympathies are strong reads well enough, but will it be implemented?
- Citizenship: The North seems determined to deprive Southerners living in the North of citizenship there. This could lead to massive displacement.
- Oil transport: So far as I can tell, there is still no agreement on transport of oil produced in the South through the North so that it can exported from Port Sudan.
- Debts: no division has yet been agreed. This often takes some time, and it may also be a way of sweetening other deals.
- South/South conflicts: various militias and tribes in the South feel excluded, are unhappy with their slices of the political pie and could challenge the state’s monopoly on the legitimate means of violence. That spells trouble.
No new country is born without challenges. South Sudan may have more than its share, but it also has great advantages: most of its population is delighted with independence, it has oil, and quick recognition and admission to the UN seem assured. It also has the good wishes of most of the world, most especially the United States, which has provided a lot of support.
Time to get on with the hard part: achieving sovereignty and building the state. Maybe that’s the answer to “what is the what?”
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