Congratulations! What now?

 

Independence happened at midnight.  Statehood and sovereignty will take decades more.

For South Sudan this is as much opportunity as it is challenge. Sudan was not working for the South, which is fortunate indeed to have an opportunity now to make its own future. The development challenges are obvious: Africa’s newest country is also one of its poorest and most illiterate. Oil, which it has in abundance, is not necessarily a cure–more resource-rich countries fail at serious development than succeed.

But in addition to its development problems, South Sudan faces serious challenges to its statehood and sovereignty:

    1. Abyei:  Ethiopian peacekeepers will be arriving, but twice the North has failed to observe the outcome of arbitrations.  There is still a long way to go before the border is agreed and demarcated.
    2. South Kordofan and Blue Nile:  The agreement on these two Northern areas where Southern sympathies are strong reads well enough, but will it be implemented?
    3. Citizenship:  The North seems determined to deprive Southerners living in the North of citizenship there.  This could lead to massive displacement.
    4. Oil transport:  So far as I can tell, there is still no agreement on transport of oil produced in the South through the North so that it can exported from Port Sudan.
    5. Debts:  no division has yet been agreed.  This often takes some time, and it may also be a way of sweetening other deals.
    6. South/South conflicts:  various militias and tribes in the South feel excluded, are unhappy with their slices of the political pie and could challenge the state’s monopoly on the legitimate means of violence.  That spells trouble.

No new country is born without challenges.  South Sudan may have more than its share, but it also has great advantages:  most of its population is delighted with independence, it has oil, and quick recognition and admission to the UN seem assured.  It also has the good wishes of most of the world, most especially the United States, which has provided a lot of support. 

Time to get on with the hard part:  achieving sovereignty and building the state.  Maybe that’s the answer to “what is the what?”

Daniel Serwer

Share
Published by
Daniel Serwer
Tags: Sudan

Recent Posts

Failure and disgrace in 100 days

The Administration is weakening the United States. That is the only thing at which it…

2 days ago

Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war

This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine in Europe. If I can contribute…

3 days ago

Popular protests in Serbia target Vucic

The question is whether the demonstrators can exploit the moment to unseat a wily and…

1 week ago

What US aid will look like after USAID

US aid will be a cash cow for Trump donors, a mainstay of autocratic regimes…

2 weeks ago

A Passover for the Palestinians

Might makes right can work for a while. But in the end they will need…

2 weeks ago

The damage is vast and continuing

The simple fact is we were better off on January 19 than we are today.…

2 weeks ago