A Libya busman’s holiday

I’ve got a paper coming out on Libya over at the Council on Foreign Relations in the next couple of days, but I mosied over to the Carnegie Endowment this afternoon for a discussion on Libya’s post-Gaddafi transition featuring Esam Omiesh of the Libyan Emergency Task Force and Fadel Lamen of the American-Libyan Council, Carnegie’s Marina Ottaway in the chair.

Marina started off with a cautionary tone:  the transition has to be fast enough to provide the country with some semblance of order and governance, but not so fast that legitimacy is brought into in doubt.  The country was already devastated by the Gaddafi regime even before the fighting, which has now split it east and west.  The security forces are also divided.  Political agreements take time, elections are not urgent, but some sort of interim administration is necessary.

Esam outlined the process as currently foreseen by the Transitional National Council (TNC).  The goal is a united, constitutionally based, democratic Libya.  In the immediate future, the NTC hopes for a ceasefire and withdrawal of Gaddafi’s forces, creation of humanitarian “safe zones,” release of prisoners and removal from power of Gaddafi and his family.

The NTC thinks of itself as a temporary umbrella group, a hybrid executive and legislative body.  It has already expanded from the original 31 members to 60 and will need to expand further as more areas are liberated.  Tripoli will be a particular challenge.  Tribal cleavages will not be an issue in Libya, as so many foreigners seem to think.  Nor will ethnic differences emerge as important, as Berbers are thoroughly integrated and have been fighting with the rebels in the Nafusa moutains.

The NTC foresees a committee of 15 to write a new constitution within 45 days by a committee of 15, then approved in a referendum.  Legislative elections would follow in 4 months, with presidential elections 2 months later.  Fadel and Marina preferred a provisional constitution, subject to subsequent revision in an unspecified way.  The new constitution, it has already been decided, would cite Islam as “a” (not “the”) source of law.

All this would be done in line with international mandates and seeking international support through a reconstruction conference.  International nongovernmental organizations will be welcomed, provided they are well informed and seek the trust of the Libyans, and especially if they have Libyan American staff.  The NTC may negotiate with Gaddafi, but it will not agree to allow him or any of his family to remain in power.

Fadel, noting that Libya under Gaddafi was a stateless state, or worse a stateless autocracy, surveyed the key players.  The TNC, he said, is accepted as legitimate everywhere, as is its chair Judge Abdul Jalil.  There is controversy about some of its other members, and it does not always make good decisions, but it has served well so far.

Local councils have grown up in liberated areas as well as in Gaddafi-held territory, including Tripoli (where there are thought to be four).   They are the ones governing at the local level.  The February 17 coalition of lawyers and judges is influential.  A relatively moderate Muslim brotherhood seems to dominate the Islamists part of the political spectrum, at least for the moment.  Technocrats from the Gaddafi regime, military officers, militia leaders, “syndicates” (regime-sponsored guilds of lawyers, doctors, etc.), secular democrats will all have roles to play.

An international honest broker will be needed, but not Qatar or the Arab League.   The UN and EU will play important roles, but Fadel wants the U.S. not to lead only from behind.  There will be a real need in order to ensure security for Muslim and Arab peacekeeping boots on the ground.

My comment:  A lot of wishful thinking here, especially about the speed and ease of the transition.  But what’s a revolution without a bit of idealism and hope?  I’m not one to fault people for wanting a good outcome, moving quickly, and being inclusive.

The local councils are the real news here:  few conflict societies generate bodies of this sort with palpable legitimacy.  For some reason, Libya does.  It will be difficult but important to preserve them from the depredations of the foreign invasion of embassies and NGOs, who will want to hire away everyone in sight who speaks English or has a decent education.