Day: July 23, 2011
The Balkan high road
Asked to talk with Fulbrighters going to Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia, I did the following notes for myself. They are not much, but they represent only a small part of the presentation, which consisted mainly of answers to their questions. I focused on U.S. relations with these countries because that is what a former Fulbrighter told me she would have liked to know more about before departing.
Fulbright Presentation
July 21, 2011
1. Someone has been kind to me: they gave me the easy countries in the Balkans. All of you are going to places that are on the high road:
- Slovenia has already arrived in NATO and the EU, even in the euro zone
- Croatia is in NATO and will soon be in the EU
- Montenegro is in NATO negotiations and expected to accede in 2012; it already has a Stabilisation and Association Agreement and EU candidacy status
- Serbia has not decided on NATO but likely will gain EU candidacy status by early next year
2. The only one that has had real problems is Serbia
- The arrest of Goran Hadzic eliminates a key obstacle to EU candidacy
- Northern Kosovo and Bosnia remain stumbling blocks–it would be best if both were removed before the EU offers candidacy
3. U.S. relations with these countries
- Slovenia and the U.S. have been on excellent terms for decades
- Croatia and the U.S. had a close relationship in the 1990s, but a problematic one: recovery of Croatian territory and cooperation on Bosnia were big issues
- Montenegro and the U.S. have been on good terms since Djukanovic turned against Milosevic in the late 1990s
- Serbia has been the problematic one
4. U.S./Serbia relations: troubled waters, calmer recently
- The U.S. contested Milosevic’s efforts at “all Serbs in one country”
- This led eventually to NATO bombing of the Bosnian Serbs in 1995 and the Dayton agreements
- It also led to the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999 to prevent the expulsion of Albanians from Kosovo
- Relations with Serbia have since been fully normalized: trade, investment, cooperation on law enforcement, nuclear issues
- But the U.S. still has serious disagreements with Serbia about Bosnia and especially Kosovo, where Belgrade continues to harbor territorial ambitions