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The Balkan high road

Asked to talk with Fulbrighters going to Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia, I did the following notes for myself.  They are not much, but they represent only a small part of the presentation, which consisted mainly of answers to their questions.  I focused on U.S. relations with these countries because that is what a former Fulbrighter told me she would have liked to know more about before departing.

Fulbright Presentation

July 21, 2011

1.   Someone has been kind to me:  they gave me the easy countries in the Balkans.  All of you are going to places that are on the high road:

• Slovenia has already arrived in NATO and the EU, even in the euro zone
• Croatia is in NATO and will soon be in the EU
• Montenegro is in NATO negotiations and expected to accede in 2012; it already has a Stabilisation and Association Agreement and EU candidacy status
• Serbia has not decided on NATO but likely will gain EU candidacy status by early next year

2.  The only one that has had real problems is Serbia

•  The arrest of Goran Hadzic eliminates a key obstacle to EU candidacy
• Northern Kosovo and Bosnia remain stumbling blocks–it would be best if both were removed before the EU offers candidacy

3.  U.S. relations with these countries

• Slovenia and the U.S. have been on excellent terms for decades
• Croatia and the U.S. had a close relationship in the 1990s, but a problematic one:  recovery of Croatian territory and cooperation on Bosnia were big issues
• Montenegro and the U.S. have been on good terms since Djukanovic turned against Milosevic in the late 1990s
• Serbia has been the problematic one

4.  U.S./Serbia relations:  troubled waters, calmer recently

• The U.S. contested Milosevic’s efforts at “all Serbs in one country”
• This led eventually to NATO bombing of the Bosnian Serbs in 1995 and the Dayton agreements
• It also led to the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999 to prevent the expulsion of Albanians from Kosovo
• Relations with Serbia have since been fully normalized:  trade, investment, cooperation on law enforcement, nuclear issues
• But the U.S. still has serious disagreements with Serbia about Bosnia and especially Kosovo, where Belgrade continues to harbor territorial ambitions