The Balkan high road

Asked to talk with Fulbrighters going to Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia, I did the following notes for myself.  They are not much, but they represent only a small part of the presentation, which consisted mainly of answers to their questions.  I focused on U.S. relations with these countries because that is what a former Fulbrighter told me she would have liked to know more about before departing.

Fulbright Presentation

July 21, 2011

1.   Someone has been kind to me:  they gave me the easy countries in the Balkans.  All of you are going to places that are on the high road:

  • Slovenia has already arrived in NATO and the EU, even in the euro zone
  • Croatia is in NATO and will soon be in the EU
  • Montenegro is in NATO negotiations and expected to accede in 2012; it already has a Stabilisation and Association Agreement and EU candidacy status
  • Serbia has not decided on NATO but likely will gain EU candidacy status by early next year

2.  The only one that has had real problems is Serbia

  •  The arrest of Goran Hadzic eliminates a key obstacle to EU candidacy
  • Northern Kosovo and Bosnia remain stumbling blocks–it would be best if both were removed before the EU offers candidacy

3.  U.S. relations with these countries

  • Slovenia and the U.S. have been on excellent terms for decades
  • Croatia and the U.S. had a close relationship in the 1990s, but a problematic one:  recovery of Croatian territory and cooperation on Bosnia were big issues
  • Montenegro and the U.S. have been on good terms since Djukanovic turned against Milosevic in the late 1990s
  • Serbia has been the problematic one

4.  U.S./Serbia relations:  troubled waters, calmer recently

  • The U.S. contested Milosevic’s efforts at “all Serbs in one country”
  • This led eventually to NATO bombing of the Bosnian Serbs in 1995 and the Dayton agreements
  • It also led to the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1999 to prevent the expulsion of Albanians from Kosovo
  • Relations with Serbia have since been fully normalized:  trade, investment, cooperation on law enforcement, nuclear issues
  • But the U.S. still has serious disagreements with Serbia about Bosnia and especially Kosovo, where Belgrade continues to harbor territorial ambitions
Daniel Serwer

Share
Published by
Daniel Serwer

Recent Posts

Trump likes incompetence and chaos

Even without Trump's chaos, the expansion would be unlikely to last much longer. We are…

19 hours ago

Trump’s first foreign policy failure

China will want to assert sovereignty over Taiwan. Israel will annex the West Bank and…

3 days ago

Group rights encourage tyranny

Power should flow from the choices of individuals, organized how they prefer. Forcing people into…

4 days ago

Trump’s cabinet of horrors

This is a cabinet of horrors. Its distinguishing characteristics are unquestioning loyalty to Donald Trump,…

1 week ago

Immigration is clear, national security not

Trump is getting through the process quickly and cleanly. There are lots of rumors, but…

1 week ago

Americans, welcome to the 4th Reich!

I, therefore conclude with a line from the Monk TV series. I may be wrong,…

1 week ago