Qaddafi near the end, Bashar still bumping along
It’s only been a week or so since I published a Council on Foreign Relations paper on preparing for post-Qaddafi Libya. It looks as if we are going to be there before the end of the month, if not in Tripoli itself in most of the rest of the country. A high-level defection, talks in Tunisia between the regime and the rebels, an ineffectual Scud missile launch by Qaddafi’s forces and rebel penetration of more western Libyan towns all signal that Qaddafi is near the end of his road.
That will of course be cause for celebration, but the really tough challenge–a successful transition to a more democratic regime that can govern and defend united Libya while respecting the rights of all its people–lies ahead. The Transitional National Council (TNC) that Europe and the United States have recognized as the legitimate governing authority has good intentions and even some good plans, but implementation in the confused period after the fall of Qaddafi will be difficult at best.
It seems to me that the international community is already well behind the curve. It needs a new UN Security Council resolution laying out the goals, parameters and leadership for the post-Qaddafi period. The EU, preoccupied though it is with the problems of the euro, needs to be thinking about deployment of a paramilitary police force at TNC request to ensure public order in Tripoli, at least temporarily. Hoping it won’t be requested or needed is not a good plan.
The internationals are in worse shape in Syria, where they haven’t managed to pass even a Security Council resolution denouncing Bashar al Assad’s horrendous assaults on his own population. The Turkish national security council is planning to meet Thursday to consider “radical” moves on Syria. Foreign Minister Davutoglu has pronounced what he terms the “final word,” which presumably means that action is coming soon. Speculation centers on a Turkish military incursion across the border into Syria, presumably to protect civilians in neighboring villages. In that event, all Bashar has to do is concentrate his attacks on the population in areas the Turks would find it hard to reach.
The more important move could come in the form of Turkish economic sanctions that signal clearly to businesspeople in Damascus and Aleppo that they need to convince Bashar al Assad to stop. But that isn’t easy for the Turks, who are enjoying their role as the burgeoning economic power of the region and will not want to give anyone reason to think twice about doing business with Turkish companies. It would be far easier for the Turks if any economic sanctions were multilateral and decided at the United Nations.
I am in Istanbul this morning–it really is a thrilling city of fabulous economic activity. Turkish geopolitical confidence is growing, but taking on Syria either militarily or economically when your foreign policy is focused on “zero problems” with neighbors is not easy. Still, I have to hope Ankara decides this week to save Europe and the United States from their own ineffectiveness.
PS: A demonstration in Aleppo, this evening:
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“It seems to me that the international community is already well behind the curve. It needs a new UN Security Council resolution laying out the goals, parameters and leadership for the post-Qaddafi period. ”
I have to say that this raises my hackles a bit – on behalf of the Libyans, of course. I wonder how they feel about the prospect of having a bunch of international diplomats move in and take over, distorting the economy and increasing the need for new types of “entertainment.” Seeing how well the UN didn’t work in Kosovo, where they were welcomed by the majority of the residents, it’s hard to imagine the Libyans are going to be enthusiastic about the arrival of highly-paid foreigners to design their institutions for them. Just a few days ago Ahtisaari’s second-in-command was saying the the problems in the north of Kosovo are due to the UN’s failure there. If foreign forces were unwilling or unable to take on the KLA and Serb resistance, are they going to be more effective in Libya? Do they have any right to be, even if they have the capability? The UN was able to use Kosovo’s lack of statehood to justify its presence, but Libya is a recognized state – what leverage does the UN have if the Libyans say thanks for the air support, we’ll take it from here? After all, they’ve probably noticed how U.S. efforts at state-building in Iraq and Afghanistan have worked.
If Gaddhafi did one thing right, it was probably setting up those local councils. People in Libya are at least used to the idea that they are responsible for governing themselves, even if the old councils were essentially a sham.
Or maybe you merely intended to say that the UN should be ready to provide whatever support the Libyans say they need? In that case, feel free to ignore the above. Me, I’d just suggest warning them not to slaughter each other in large numbers, and ask them to please turn on the oil again.