Good show, now what?

While my twitterfeed remains skeptical that the U.S. has any leverage to get Bashar al Assad to step aside, I think the Administration put on a pretty good diplomatic show in the last day or two, with more to come.  In addition to the US moves, the UN published a fact-finding report that Colum Lynch appropriately describes as “scathing.”  The Europeans and Turkey seem to be lining up to say the right things.

More important is what Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Europeans do now.  The Administration is hinting that the Europeans will block their own Syrian oil imports.  This they can do because it is not much oil, but it accounts for more than a quarter of Syria’s revenue.  Turkey’s National Security Council today called for democratic change in Syria, but that likely won’t have much impact as the Foreign Minister has already issued several final warnings to Bashar al Assad.  What is needed is some action from Turkey in blocking trade or investment, which would signal clearly to Syrian businesspeople that the end is near.  The Saudis can make life hard for Bashar in many ways, not least just by indicating that it supports the protesters, as the King did late last week.

New York will be the center of the international action the next few days.  The Americans are pushing a Security Council resolution.  The Human Rights Council is to meet Monday to discuss the fact-finding report.  That should provide an occasion for lambasting the Syrian regime.  Legitimacy counts, even for autocracies.  When the UN is taking you to task for murdering your own citizens with their hands tied behind their backs, legitimacy comes into question.

Today in Syria is also key.  Already this week there have been demonstrations in Aleppo, Syria’s largest and most important commercial city.  A big turnout there and in Damascus would confirm that the judgment that it is time for Bashar to step aside.  How widespread the demonstrations are will also count.  The international moves may elicit a big response among the Syrians.

What we can’t really know is how all this will affect the small circle around Bashar al Assad.  It would take only a few of them to abandon his cause for Syria to turn quickly in a new direction.

The problem is what to do with Bashar.  Pressure is building for the Security Council to refer him to the International Criminal Court.  I am not as opposed to an indictment as many diplomats, who believe it would only strengthen his resolve to hold on to power.  That it may do, but it may also make those who work for him begin to wonder whether carrying out his orders to kill civilians is a smart thing to do.

I have my doubts though that evidence can be gathered in a time frame that would make an indictment meaningful.  More likely, a referral would be followed by a long delay, which would make matters worse rather than better (remember the Hariri case, and the case against President Bashir of Sudan?).

So what happens next?  Bashar al Assad won’t step aside until his security forces crack more dramatically than they have so far.  I don’t know anyone who can even pretend to know when that will happen, but the American/Turkish/Saudi/European/UN pressure being brought to bear this week is pushing things in the right direction.

Paul Pillar, in a piece published yesterday by The National Interest focused on Gary Locke, the new American ambassador to Beijing, notes:

The incidental influence that the United States exerts simply through people around the world observing its behavior is consistently underestimated, just as the influence the United States can exert intentionally by exercising its economic, military, or other instruments of hard power tends to be overestimated.

My twitterfeed is underestimating America’s “incidental influence” on events in Syria.  I don’t know whether it will be enough, but it will make Bashar al Assad very uncomfortable for the next few days, at the very least.