peacefare.net

Step aside

I discussed current events in Syria and the Obama Administration call for Bashar al Assad to step aside, along with a bit of Libya, this morning on C Span’s Washington Journal:

 

Here are the notes I did for myself on Syria in preparation:

1.  The contest continues:

• Military assault is undiminished, security forces still united
• Demonstrators trying to mark beginning of the end

2.  The international community is speaking louder and with a more unified voice

• U.S. “step aside” echoed in Europe, Turkey had already given “final warning”
• Arab ambassadors withdrawn:  Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Tunisia
• Europe getting ready to bar oil imports
• UN fact finding report “scathing”:  torture, murder, disappearances, arbitrary arrests,  supposedly going this weekend (Navi Pillay and Valerie Amos)
• IAEA found NPT violation
• Unrelated, I think, to current events:  Syria disqualified from 2014 World Cup!
• Diplomatic observers possible

3.   Bashar still has internal and external pillars intact

• Iran solid, Russia still protecting in UNSC
• Army and business community still backing him
• Republican Guard (10k) and 4^th armored division show no signs of cracking:  Deraa, Banias, Homs, Idlib
• Shabbiha still active

4.  Opposition strong

• Widespread protests
• Still relatively weak in Aleppo and Damascus, but growing
• Good unity:  several iterations, now Syrian National Council
• Good nonviolent discipline, though some arms
• Good planning