Step aside

Posted in Uncategorized - August 20, 2011 - 0 Comment

I discussed current events in Syria and the Obama Administration call for Bashar al Assad to step aside, along with a bit of Libya, this morning on C Span’s Washington Journal:

 

Here are the notes I did for myself on Syria in preparation:

1.  The contest continues:

  • Military assault is undiminished, security forces still united
  • Demonstrators trying to mark beginning of the end

2.  The international community is speaking louder and with a more unified voice

  • U.S. “step aside” echoed in Europe, Turkey had already given “final warning”
  • Arab ambassadors withdrawn:  Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Tunisia
  • Europe getting ready to bar oil imports
  • UN fact finding report “scathing”:  torture, murder, disappearances, arbitrary arrests,  supposedly going this weekend (Navi Pillay and Valerie Amos)
  • IAEA found NPT violation
  • Unrelated, I think, to current events:  Syria disqualified from 2014 World Cup!
  • Diplomatic observers possible

3.   Bashar still has internal and external pillars intact

  • Iran solid, Russia still protecting in UNSC
  • Army and business community still backing him
  • Republican Guard (10k) and 4th armored division show no signs of cracking:  Deraa, Banias, Homs, Idlib
  • Shabbiha still active

4.  Opposition strong

  • Widespread protests
  • Still relatively weak in Aleppo and Damascus, but growing
  • Good unity:  several iterations, now Syrian National Council
  • Good nonviolent discipline, though some arms
  • Good planning

 

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