Step aside

I discussed current events in Syria and the Obama Administration call for Bashar al Assad to step aside, along with a bit of Libya, this morning on C Span’s Washington Journal:

 

Here are the notes I did for myself on Syria in preparation:

1.  The contest continues:

  • Military assault is undiminished, security forces still united
  • Demonstrators trying to mark beginning of the end

2.  The international community is speaking louder and with a more unified voice

  • U.S. “step aside” echoed in Europe, Turkey had already given “final warning”
  • Arab ambassadors withdrawn:  Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi, Tunisia
  • Europe getting ready to bar oil imports
  • UN fact finding report “scathing”:  torture, murder, disappearances, arbitrary arrests,  supposedly going this weekend (Navi Pillay and Valerie Amos)
  • IAEA found NPT violation
  • Unrelated, I think, to current events:  Syria disqualified from 2014 World Cup!
  • Diplomatic observers possible

3.   Bashar still has internal and external pillars intact

  • Iran solid, Russia still protecting in UNSC
  • Army and business community still backing him
  • Republican Guard (10k) and 4th armored division show no signs of cracking:  Deraa, Banias, Homs, Idlib
  • Shabbiha still active

4.  Opposition strong

  • Widespread protests
  • Still relatively weak in Aleppo and Damascus, but growing
  • Good unity:  several iterations, now Syrian National Council
  • Good nonviolent discipline, though some arms
  • Good planning

 

admin

Share
Published by
admin

Recent Posts

Failure and disgrace in 100 days

The Administration is weakening the United States. That is the only thing at which it…

2 days ago

Heading for Kyiv, thinking about post-war

This war should end with a prosperous, democratic Ukraine in Europe. If I can contribute…

3 days ago

Popular protests in Serbia target Vucic

The question is whether the demonstrators can exploit the moment to unseat a wily and…

1 week ago

What US aid will look like after USAID

US aid will be a cash cow for Trump donors, a mainstay of autocratic regimes…

2 weeks ago

A Passover for the Palestinians

Might makes right can work for a while. But in the end they will need…

2 weeks ago

The damage is vast and continuing

The simple fact is we were better off on January 19 than we are today.…

2 weeks ago