Costly delusion
Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo Oliver Ivanović is quoted on B92:
“It should be clear to everyone, including Kosovo Albanians, that the issue of the Kosovo status has not been solved yet,” Ivanović told Tanjug and added that with all due respect to the U.S. and other influential and powerful countries that have recognized Kosovo’s independence, it was clear that until Serbia did so there would be a serious obstacle to Kosovo promoting itself as independent.
The state secretary noted that the negotiations on the status of Kosovo should not be rushed and that Albanians were slowly coming round to the fact that Serbia had all the keys, which was why they would need to negotiate with it about this matter sooner or later….
He expressed belief that the Cypriot model was the only right solution for the Kosovo issue.
Speaking about the status of northern Kosovo, the state secretary pointed out that this issue would certainly be opened, together with the status of entire Kosovo.
I agree that Serbia is an obstacle to full realization of Kosovo’s independence, both because it continues to control the north and because it stands in the way of General Assembly membership. But to suggest that Serbia has “all the keys” is clearly mistaken, unless Belgrade is willing to give up on European Union candidacy, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear enough this week in Belgrade. And the notion that the EU would accept a Cyprus solution suggests outright delusion. That is precisely what virtually all EU members–especially Serbia’s putative ally Cyprus–will want to avoid.
This is instructive, because it illustrates so clearly how Belgrade paints itself into a corner. The analysis is basically correct, but Belgrade’s influence is exaggerated. Serbia does not have the power to reopen the question of Kosovo’s status, only the status of northern Kosovo, and it can get its way on that issue only if it is prepared to defy Brussels and Washington and sacrifice its own EU hopes.
I’ll be happy to let Serbs decide whether that is in their interest. They will want to take into account that Kosovo seems to cost Belgrade 500 million euros per year, according to Serb sources. It is hard to believe that is worthwhile, and it is certainly not sustainable.
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And what about the costs paid by us – I’m Italian, a Westerner – for supporting the unilateral approach to the Kosovo issue? Do you think *they* are sustainable?
In my opinion focusing on people’s will – i.e. if the Northeners do not want to submit to Pristina, set them free – is either ethical and pragmatic.
Best regards.
Serbia is aware that it cannot expect to join the EU before 2020, if ever, by any means, whether with or without getting EU candidacy by the end of this year. That is one of main reasons why Serbia is striving to delay the definite conclusion of the Kosovo issue. In fact, Serbia is lacking confidence in its own ability to qualify for the EU membership and therefore will keep hesitating to waive its – I must say: suicidal – policy on Kosovo. While such strategy is calculated to ensure that at least one of the two proclaimed national objectives – either EU or Kosovo – will be achieved, it is most likely to leave Serbia without both of them in the end.
Interesting that on the same day as this article on the 500-mln-euro cost of Kosovo there were also an article (Danas) on a state budget shortfall of 200-300 million euros that will have to be made up by cuts, and still another article (in Politika, this time) on how much aid Serbia gets from the EU, Germany and the US – and how little (essentially, none) from Russia and China. The message seems clear: we can’t afford Kosovo much longer, and the EU is our only hope for aid and investment.
The only thing I remember about Fuele’s confirmation hearing as Expansions Commissioner was that he specifically ruled out the Cyprus option for Serbia and Kosovo. The idea is like that mole – it keeps popping up, and won’t stay whacked. But with Turkey threatening to refuse to deal with the EU during the Cyprus presidency next year, everybody will be reminded exactly why it’s such a bad idea.
Agree with your analysis.
Ivanovic likes to throw balloons in the air. Cyprus is precisely the nightmare option that everybody is trying to avoid!
As per the costs, at don’t forget the huge losses incurred to Serbia’s companies due to the customs problems.
By sheer coincidence, Novosti yesterday (Aug. 27) had an article on the coming collapse of the pension system in Serbia http://www.novosti.rs/vesti/naslovna/aktuelno.69.html:342990-Penzije-su-pred-kolapsom.
With 1.7 million workers responsible for the pensions of 1.6 million retirees, they’re at nearly a 1:1 ratio of payer:recipient. (Agreed, unemployment is high, but even if there were to be full employment tomorrow, the age structure is only going to be getting worse in the coming decades.)
The average net salary is 39,322 dinars, the average pension is 23,000 dinars – a worker thus owes nearly 60% of his wage to that pensioner he is supporting. Under present rules, pensions are supposed to rise along with GDP and inflation, meaning there’s no way to grow out of the problem. Something’s going to have to change, but the pensioners party is big – they won last time by promising the 60% figure. (And its representative at the IMF talks is stubborn.) Workers don’t pay all this amount directly – the “government” kicks in about 48% of the pension fund total. But where does a government get money? For a while you can sell off state-owned property, but most of that has already gone. Ultimately, they’re going to have to get it from workers and businesses (increasing the cost of doing business, destroying Serbia’s low-cost advantage compared to other EU countries).
It seems to be the elderly who are most committed to holding on to Kosovo, but are they willing to see their pensions cut to continue to do so? Or be willing to retire much later? Sometimes I think that what the Serbian government really wants from Kosovo is not the territory, but all those young workers potentially able to pay into the pension fund (and with a small population of elderly of their own).\
(The lights are flickering – Irene has arrived – any responses to comments will probably be delayed.)
“For a while you can sell off state-owned property, but most of that has already gone. Ultimately, they’re going to have to get it from workers and businesses (increasing the cost of doing business, destroying Serbia’s low-cost advantage compared to other EU countries)”.
Private entrepreneurs in Serbia, except those directly protected by ruling parties and the government, are already overburdened by high taxes so that any further tax increase would inevitably force many of them to either shut down their companies or enter grey market zone. In neither case would the overall state budget and pension fund respectively rise, but just the opposite.
“Serbia does not have the power to reopen the question of Kosovo’s status, only the status of northern Kosovo, and it can get its way on that issue only if it is prepared to defy Brussels and Washington and sacrifice its own EU hopes.”
In the end both the US and the EU don’t have major interests in the region. Serbia should come up for its interests just as the other countries in the region do. Not coming up for its interests creates in the end more trouble than telling it how it is.
Merkel is delusional when she thinks that her ethnic cleansing plans will create stability. It won’t even help Kosovo: it will only make it poorer.
Of course Serbia should stand up for its interests. The question is, is hanging onto a sliver of Kosovo actually in its best interests? It certainly doesn’t look as though it can afford it much longer, and if it doesn’t want Kosovar Serbs moving in large numbers to “narrower Serbia” they should convince them they’ll be safe in Kosovo. On the other hand, there are villages emptying out, 800 elementary schools are being closed all over Serbia this year for having fewer than 5 students – consolidating its population might make sense. How many states can afford one teacher per 6 students?
(Irene was kind of a damp squib here in Boston, too. Good practice for The Big One, I guess.)
What makes you think that those Serbs will be safe in Kosovo and that Belgrade can convince them of that. Northern Kosovo contains many thousands of Serbs who have been driven from Southern Kosovo. They know how it is there. And given that all Kosovo’s cities have driven out nearly their complete Serb community I think there has to be serious doubt how the Serbs in Northern Mitrovica will fare when they come under Albanian control.
The North will still be a Serb-majority area, with (KP) Serbian police officers, teachers, etc. – just like in the southern municipalities.