Day: September 18, 2011
The long and the short of it
As I prepare to head home to DC from Cairo today, my two weeks in Egypt and Libya seem enormously interesting and informative, even as they reconfirm how little can be understood from such short stays in complicated environments. What do we really see of another society without speaking its language and living at length in its midst?
I am close to finishing Alaa al Aswany’s The Yacoubian Building. There is little in its penetrating accounts of abusive sexual relationships in Egypt that I would gather from staying at the Fairmont and running around Cairo to talk with various participants in its recent revolution, though I knew enough about harassment of women here to understand how fraught with sexual dysfunction the society is.
In Libya, the thing that struck me is how difficult it is to understand the role of religion. Pervasive, but not really political, at least not yet, Islam seems more a unifying factor (again, for the moment) than a divisive one, as it certainly is among some Egyptians. But that may be changing.
The east/west geographical divide in Libya appeared far less important to me (and to many journalists who have spent a lot of time in Libya) than some experts had predicted. At the same time, the demands of fighters from Misrata are roiling what had appeared to be relatively tranquil regional relationships. I understand they yesterday laid claim to the prime ministry in a reshuffled executive committee of the National Transitional Council, on grounds that they have fought more aggressively against Qaddafi’s forces, especially at Sirte, than anyone else. The Benghazis, who claim to have initiated the revolution, did not react well.
Egypt and Libya are certainly not the only countries with sexual dysfunction, regional differences and problems with the role of religion in public life. I didn’t live 10 years in Italy without hearing a great deal about all three. But even after 10 years I wasn’t sure that I understood things the way Italians understood them–in fact, I’m sure I didn’t. I was still an American with different cultural baggage and presumptions about gender, geography and religion.
Societies in the midst of revolution are particularly problematic. How much is changing and how much is staying the same? Most historians would hesitate to say until years later. Libya and Egypt have both decapitated their autocratic regimes, but they are still far from having established new ones.
For all the giddy enthusiasm of the revolutionary days and weeks, there is no guarantee that they will be democratic, or even much different from the old ones. Libyans often say they know what they don’t want, namely a leader who tells them what to think (and enforces the dictate with violence). But does that mean they won’t accept a softer autocracy? No one in Egypt seems sure any longer that the military will be prepared to leave power, even if the generals seem ready to set a date for the first round of elections on November 21.
Short visits may be unsatisfying and even misleading, but it doesn’t follow that longer visits will be much more enlightening. I wouldn’t want to wait until the history books are written to have a look for myself. The point I suppose is to take the opportunities we can to expose ourselves to other societies and learn whatever can be gathered in the time available, remembering always that there is a great deal more beneath the surface that we can’t possibly fathom.
I certainly don’t regret having passed up a summer holiday for this September interlude in two very exciting places!
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So far so good
Free Libya seems to me headed in the right direction. It could still be diverted, in particular if Qaddafi manages to raise an insurgency or if the revolutionary militias fall out with each other and begin internecine fighting. But the National Transitional Council (NTC seems to have won the battle with TNC) has legitimacy in the eyes of every Libyan I’ve talked with. They like the roadmap to elections and the constitution the NTC has laid out, they like what they regard as its uncorrupted leadership, and they have confidence that things will improve because of Libya’s vast oil and gas resources.
I’ve never been in a post-war situation with as much unanimity and solidarity on main issues as here. You can see it literally painted all over both Benghazi and Tripoli–the pre-Qaddafi (royalist) flag that symbolizes, Libyans tell me, independence (not the monarchy that flew it originally). Their anthem, they say, is not a “national” anthem but an “independence” anthem (they’ve of course ditched Qaddafi’s and brought back the royal one). I bought a flag in Benghazi’s Court House square, to join the excessive number of symbols of freedom that decorate my office at Johns Hopkins/SAIS. It would be hard to leave Libya without it.
The sense of solidarity and unanimity extends to Tripoli, though it certainly does not entirely fill the vast expanse between the two cities. There is still fighting at Sirte, Bani Walid and other places where Qaddafi’s loyalists are holding out. There is a question whether the NTC can reach out and extend its big tent approach to those who live in central Libya, but they have certainly engaged Tripoli, at least for now.
I spent a few quality hours at the Defense Ministry in Benghazi, where I found a number of professionals engaged seriously with less than glorious challenges. They believe Qaddafi’s forces have strewn 15,000 mines across the countryside. The preferred method for finding them in sand for the moment is with your hands, though there are some higher-tech approaches whose export to Libya is still prohibited by the UN arms embargo. I hope the UN fixed that in the Security Council resolution that passed yesterday.
The Defense Ministry is also concerned about its expeditionary medical capacity, which is close to zero. They haven’t got field hospitals or the logistical capacity to support them.
These are not the kinds of problems that I usually worry about, but I was glad to hear that others do worry about them. “Uniform” may be a euphemism at the Defense Ministry–everyone seems to wear whatever BDUs (battle dress uniform, or “camouflage” as the civilians say) come to hand, as well as the uniforms of Qaddafi’s army. There is no saluting and no formality, even in the anteroom to the minister’s office. But there is a sense of professional purpose and seriousness, as well as a good deal of camaraderie. These folks know each other, have fought a war together, and are now trying to sort out the thousand things that got left behind. But how much the Defense Ministry is linked to the militias guarding street corners in Tripoli is not clear.
The challenge is to unify Libya’s many former rebel forces before they start serious jockeying for territory and power, demobilizing at least some of them and getting others to return to the rougher places from which they came. It will not be easy. Life in Tripoli may look pretty good to someone from the Nafusa Mountains.
Elementary school opens today in Libya. Universities next month. The police are on the streets. The garbage collectors are out with reflective vests, even if their efforts still seem spotty. I talked to a former Mercedes manager today. He says people are still not taking their fancy cars out of the garage. But traffic is heavy. Friday nights’s exuberant demonstration, well attended by women and children, is still ringing in my ears.
Libyans are feeling proud, even giddy with their refurbished identity, which they trust will be more welcome in the rest of the world than the previous one. Fears of an east/west split in the country have so far not materialized. Qaddafi may still be at large, but no one is expecting him back except to be tried (and they expect executed). So far so good, even if big challenges lie ahead.
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