peacefare.net

There are still things to do about Syria

I’m an enthusiast, as most Americans I know are, for our ambassador in Damascus, Robert Ford, so here is his Skype performance with Andrew Tabler yesterday at The Washington Institute:

TWI is good about writing up its events quickly, so I won’t attempt that. Just a few high points:

• There is a lot of chatter about revolutionary violence, which inevitably will lead to more regime violence, alignment of minorities with the regime and ultimately sectarian conflict;
• The newly established Syrian National Council (SNC) needs to develop a serious program for how it will govern that promises protection for minorities, establishes broad legitimacy within Syria and attracts international support;
• Concerted multilateral pressure targeting regime individuals, the central bank, the state-owned Commercial Bank and oil sales will hamstring the regime and weaken the allegiance of both the merchant class and some military elements to the regime;
• Regional pressure and openness to refugees, especially from Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, can also help.

While Russia and China blocked a UN Security Council resolution, they are now urging reforms and might be convinced to go along with international monitors focused on establishing the facts of what is going on.  If Bashar al Assad then refuses them, it will reflect badly on him.

Policy conclusions:

• Discourage violence, help the opposition with the tactics of nonviolent civil resistance, including general strikes;
• Help the SNC develop its governance program, with ownership clearly staying with the Syrians;
• Tighten up sanctions;
• Form a regional Friends of Syria including neighboring countries;
• Talk with the Russians and Chinese about international monitors with a UN mandate.

PS: Some courageous Syrians, said to be demonstrating Friday in Damascus: