Day: October 31, 2011
They’ll miss it once it’s gone
Tim Wirth argues that UNESCO admission of Palestine as a member will initiate a cascade of U.S. withdrawals from UN specialized agencies, damaging important American interests. This is because current law prohibits the U.S. from providing financial contributions to any UN entity that admits Palestine as a member.
John Bolton says
UNESCO has made its decision: It prefers Palestinian membership to American participation. Now let the rest of the U.N. specialized agencies make their choice.
This is game of chicken, played between the U.S. Congress, which is not interested in changing the law, and foreign governments, most of which have so far seen support for Palestine’s membership in international organizations as a cheap way of supporting the Palestinians and expressing dissatisfaction with the Israeli government’s negotiating stance.
Despite its good works, few care much about UNESCO, which the U.S. stayed out of for years without much harm done. As Wirth notes, the more important UN agencies for American interests are the World Intellectual Property Organization, the World Health Organization, the International Telecommunications Union and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Each will make its own decision based on the procedures outlined in its charter.
Some argue that failure to pay dues does not automatically lead to withdrawal from membership, and the U.S. could continue in arrears for at least several years, and possibly more, without legal consequences. That may be so, but American influence would certainly decline, as would the capabilities of organizations that really do perform functions–like inspection of nuclear programs–that serve U.S. interests.
We are watching a diplomatic game of chicken, which like most diplomatic games occurs in slow motion. If Palestine’s supporters blink first, their cause suffers a setback, but not really a very serious one. More than 100 countries have already recognized Palestine. Membership in international organizations won’t add much. The international system would then remain what it is: an imperfect but useful multilateral instrument through which Washington has often been successful in pursuing its interests.
But if they don’t and the U.S. cuts off funding, we could be witnessing the end of the post-World War II international system, one that depends on the United Nations and its specialized agencies to carry a lot of water for Washington. Bolton and company don’t see it that way–they see it as a hindrance to American power and would rather get rid of it altogether. But they’ll miss it once it’s gone.
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Arresting developments
Ali Hawar, a friendly Kurdish journalist for Al Rudaw weekly published in Erbil, writes:
A few Days ago Iraqi security forces cracked down on former members of the former ruling Baath party. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Maliki defended the crack down and there are rumors that those who were arrested were planing for military coup….
I answered his questions:
1- Do you think a military coup can happen in Iraq?
DPS: I imagine a military coup could happen in Iraq, but I personally have no reason to believe that one was being planned. If the government has evidence against the people it has arrested, I hope it will be presented soon in public.
2- What does this latest event tell you about the future of Iraq, especially now that the US will defiantly leave at the end of the year?
DPS: It tells me Iraqis had better learn how to sort out their problems by peaceful means without the Americans around. Some of the people who were most critical of the American presence in the past are now hoping the Americans will rescue them from what they claim is abuse of power by the Prime Minister. I might even sympathize with their complaint, but they should have worried a bit more about the American withdrawal they so stridently demanded. The Americans aren’t being defiant–they are doing what the government in Baghdad has asked them to do.
I imagine the Americans will ask a lot of questions about these arrests, and depending on the answers they may register some objections, but they cannot do a whole lot more than that. The problems emerging now have to be settled among Iraqis.
3- Do you believe this is another scenario from Maliki, so he can show his political power toward his rivals?
DPS: I don’t really doubt that Maliki fears a coup attempt. What I don’t know is if he has real reason to fear it.
He has also unquestionably been trying to consolidate his hold on power. It is up to other political forces in the society to use the means provided by the constitution to respond if they think he is going too far. The provision in the constitution for formation of regions is one possible route for those who don’t appreciate Baghdad’s behavior. But the constitutional procedure for a referendum has to be followed.
The main thing is that Iraq stick with the rule of law. I could be arrested in the U.S., too, maybe wrongfully. I would have to hire a lawyer and defend myself. The trouble in Iraq is that the courts are not sufficiently independent to guarantee a fair trial. A bit more focus on problems like that, and less on who holds what position in which council, would be a good idea.
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