peacefare.net

Are things going to hell in Libya?

Not yet is the answer.

But you wouldn’t know that from the media coverage.  National Transitional Council (NTC) chair Mahmoud Jalil’s comment about allowing polygamy got a lot of ink.  So too does every hiccup of the armed militias in Tripoli, not to mention what happens if an Islamist sneezes or a supposed Al Qaeda flag flies.  I need hardly mention the disgusting, criminal behavior of the young men who capture Qaddafi and then allegedly sodomized and murdered him.

I wouldn’t want to minimize any of these issues.  In fact, I drew attention to the militia and Islamist issues weeks ago.  Integrating the militias under NTC control, establishing law and order and ensuring no room for Al Qaeda are vital, as is regaining control of as many surface-to-air missiles (MANPADs) as possible.

But any government that can peacefully switch out its prime minister and begin the process of appointing a new cabinet, in accordance with its constitutional framework, is not yet going to hell in a handbasket.  Nor does the relatively chaotic situation outside of Tripoli and Benghazi, and the wasteland that used to be Sirte, prove that things are going in the wrong direction.

What we need to do now is ensure that they continue to go in the right direction.  Where are the goals agreed between the Libyans and the international community?  Where is the structure for donor coordination?  What kind of program is the European Union putting in place?  What are the Qataris up to?  The internationals quickly lost their focus once the fighting was over.

This is a big mistake.  Libya has bigger problems than Tunisia:  the lack of a state, the violence of the rebellion, militia competition, some revenge killing and torturing.   But it also has resources, good leadership, and some serious planning, including the constitutional framework.  Let’s make sure it heads down Tunisia’s path towards good elections and a constitution.