Day: November 7, 2011
Nuclear cabal
The big news today is Iran’s progress towards nuclear weapons. The reports are based on information reported to have been given to the UN-affiliated International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which administers the Non-proliferation Treaty (Iran is a “state party”).
It is the people who gave the information to the IAEA who seem to have leaked the information, which includes details of Iranian efforts not only to obtain the necessary highly enriched uranium but also to learn how to detonate a nuclear weapon. Foreign assistance from Russia, Pakistan and North Korea is alleged to be involved.
I have no reason to doubt the assertions, but no confirmation either. The IAEA will not necessarily publish its findings later this week with all the spin that accompanies today’s revelations. It is often more cautious than the Americans like, and presumably today’s leaks are an effort to box the IAEA into taking a hard line.
For what purpose? My best guess is that the Americans are trying to get the Security Council to go along with ratcheting up the sanctions on Tehran. While there has been audible saber-rattling from Israel the last few days, I don’t think we can expect that to happen in the lead-up to a real attack. Israel needs tactical surprise to pull it off. The rumbling from Israel is also preparation for tougher sanctions, I imagine.
The most interesting aspect of the reports today is the part about foreign assistance. Those in charge of nonproliferation policy in my past often assumed that no state with nuclear weapons would consciously help another get them. That assumption has evaporated. We seem to have a kind of nuclear cabal willing to do things thought anathema in the past.
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Patriotism, not treason
I surprised a Kosovar visitor this morning with an idea I thought I had published long ago but now can’t find on peacefare: Pristina should be represented in Belgrade. So if I have already mentioned it, please excuse the repetition.
If not, here is my thinking.
I would never want to negotiate with a foreign state in whose capital I am not represented. Why? Because it is important to understand the political dynamics there. Even if we are the direst of enemies, there will be a range of political views, with some leaning more in directions I might find useful than others. Having a representative there will help me to understand at least this much: how not to strengthen my enemies. I might even find some allies, especially if I couch my desires in the right terms.
Take Belgrade, for example. Most of the Serbian political spectrum is rock solid in public in wanting sovereignty over Kosovo. There are some who openly disavow that goal, but many more who realize it is not compatible with Serbia’s own ambitions to join the European Union. It is in part a matter of priorities: Serbia has limited resources (especially financial) and needs to limit its commitments. That is why it concurred in Kosovo joining the IMF and World Bank, enabling Serbia to get out from under the obligation to pay some arrears. There are today lots of people in Belgrade who would like more transparency and accountability for Serbia’s subsidies to Serbs in Kosovo. Which is what Pristina should want too. So screaming foul about the subsidies is likely not going to be as effective as calling for transparency and accountability, an objective at least some in Belgrade share.
But would Belgrade agree to Kosovo representation? I don’t know. But I do know that Serbia maintains state institutions inside Kosovo. Reciprocity is the heart of state-to-state relations: if Kosovo regards itself as sovereign and independent, it should ask for representation inside Serbia.
Of course Serbia may say “no,” since it does not regard Kosovo as sovereign and independent. Pristina can’t evict the Serbian institutions, because they are located in the Belgrade-controlled north. A better course would be to accept an unofficial office in Belgrade, one opened by a Kosovar nongovernmental organization. The head would need to be an Albanian who speaks native Serbian and can appear publicly and informally as a spokesman and defender of the Kosovo institutions, just as the Serbian institutions in north Kosovo do for Belgrade.
Belgrade might want that non-office office to be located outside the capital. That’s fine: it should then be in the Albanian-majority Presevo valley. Belgrade won’t like that, but if it refuses, it embarrasses itself.
The real problem with this idea is not Belgrade’s attitude–which we don’t know yet–but rather the Albanians. I am reliably told that it would be hard to find someone to go to Belgrade, since that would be regarded as treasonous. This is of course absurd: representing your country in a hostile capital is patriotism, not treason.
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Boren graduate fellowships
Boren Fellows represent a variety of academic and professional disciplines, but all are interested in studying less commonly taught languages, including but not limited to Arabic, Chinese, Korean, Portuguese, Russian and Swahili. For a complete list of languages, click here.
Boren Fellowships are funded by the National Security Education Program (NSEP), which focuses on geographic areas, languages, and fields of study deemed critical to U.S. national security. Applicants should identify how their projects, as well as their future academic and career goals, will contribute to U.S. national security, broadly defined. NSEP draws on a broad definition of national security, recognizing that the scope of national security has expanded to include not only the traditional concerns of protecting and promoting American well-being, but also the challenges of global society, including sustainable development, environmental degradation, global disease and hunger, population growth and migration, and economic competitiveness.
To view the Program Basics of the Boren Fellowships, click here.
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